Ky derby long shots?

Question

Who are some if any who may finish in the money.My thought is a $40 bet 2 for show on all. Just in fun

Answer 1

Actually, your idea makes a ton of sense.  If two of the top three finishers are surprises, you can make some money with that bet.  And I think the worst you can do is lose 20 bucks.

Answer 2

Instead of going with the show bet, put $10 to win on 4 of the longer priced horses.  At least if you hit with one you'll be looking at a couple hundred dollars at least.  If you're looking for value stay away from Tiago and Chelokee, they will both be bet down way lower than they should be because of their connections.  However I do like the way Tiago ran first time with the blinkers off, and if he does move forward off the win in the Santa Anita Derby, he could be right there at the end.  You still might get around 10-1 to 20-1 on him, but it would be a lot more if he wasn't owned and trained by the Giacomo crew.  As for Chelokee, if Matz didn't train him nobody would be talking about him, he should be at least 50-1 and you will probably not get any higher than 25-1 on Derby day.

Three longshots (or horses with a fair price) that I will be using for sure are Liquidity, Sam P and Any Given Saturday.  They are from 2 great barns and all of them will be changing their running styles in the Derby and try to come from further off the pace.  Pletcher said the blinkers were a mistake with Sam P, and that AGS will be allowed to relax more and come with one run.  O'Neill has already worked Liquidity slow early and fast coming home.

I'm not saying they will win, but those 3 are going to be bargain plays on Derby day, you will probably get 15 to 20-1 on Any Given Saturday who was one of the top contenders before the Wood, and you should get over 50-1 on Liquidity and Sam P who were the top 2 picks in the Santa Anita Derby.

Any one of those 3 can bounce back off a poor performance in their last race and light up the tote board, or maybe even box all 3 in a tri and hope for a massive payout.

Answer 3

I'll be throwing Tiago in there! I had Giacomo in the '05 future pool... Tiago has the exact same connections (not that that means a whole lot) owners, trainer and jockey.

He's lightly raced and has a nice closing kick.

Answer 4

Chelokee and Tiago are pretty good shots that have a chance!!

Answer 5

That's not a smart bet.Think about it,if you make 20 show bets you're automatically making 17 losing bets against 3 winning bets.The average show price for the 3 winning show bets would have to be $13.35 just to break even.

Answer 6

Wow they don't have the 2007 line up yet so cannot make any predictions right now but soon.

Here is the Kentucky Derby site from Churchill Downs

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_...

Answer 7

Go with Tiago as a long shot definitely.

Curlin will probably go off the favorite, so anybody that answered Curlin didn't understand the question.  (And, yes, those answers deserve a thumbs down, but I will withhold them this time to be nice).

Answer 8

Chelokee is this year's 'wise guy' horse.  He doesn't have a lot of graded earnings and may not make the field but a lot of people have been very high on him.  Tiago is a good colt from CA, he won the Santa Anita Derby at 30/1 and is a 1/2 brother to Giacomo.  Tiago seems to be a bit classier of a horse than Giacomo and his sire is more suited to siring classic distance horses.  The last one I would throw in is either Cowtown Cat or Any Given Saturday (bet whichever has higher odds).  It figures that someone will get lost in the Pletcher cavalry, but both of these are classy individuals with deserving shots at the race.

Answer 9

So far for me, Curlin is the horse to bet on. Even though I don't bet on horses, if I did I would totally bet on him. Because he has won all his races (even though it's only been three). But the good part is, is that he's won them by nice size margins, PLUS he didn't even race as a two-year-old!

SO FOR SURE PICK CURLIN!!! lol

My next choice would probably be... Hard Spun OR Nobiz Like Shobiz. These horse just race like there's no tomorrow. Because Hard Spun has won all but one race. WHICH had the same dirt as Chuchill Downs, or like the same set-up, but they have been working with him on that and he is coming along great. SO then Nobiz had blinkers that would keep him in focus. So on the first race with the blinkers he won it!

So just if you bet, for sure bet on Curlin. The other two are pretty good too. I'll just let you decide. But for sure I think that you should big Curlin as #1.

--melissa--

RIP Barbaro

Answer 10

I think Curlin will win. I think he will even with the Triple Crown. So bet on Curlin!