MCain/Obama. Have you heard of the Bradley Effect? Can white people be honest about this? ?

Question

Many believe Obama will lose this election even though he is leading in opinion polls. The Bradley effect is described as:

The term Bradley effect or (less commonly) the Wilder effect refers to an explanation advanced as the possible cause of a phenomenon which has led to frequent inaccurate voter opinion polls in many American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. Specifically, there were instances in which such elections saw the non-white candidate significantly underperform with respect to the results predicted by pre-election polls.

Researchers who studied the issue theorized that some white voters gave inaccurate polling responses because of a fear that by stating their true preference, they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced. This theory suggested that statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but that those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the non-white candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate.

--I would love to hear from white Americans that are in the "undecided" category as it regards to the upcoming election.

Answer 1

It didn't stop them in the Primaries

Answer 2

The theory is absolutely true.  However, it is also true that many people who say they are voting for McCain are also being untruthful.  I know plenty of people who would never admit that they are going to vote for a man who considers himself "black".  People will be honest in the voting booth, and not before then.

Answer 3

If you check the latest polls, you will find there are less undecides than there were a few weeks ago.  The Galup poll indicates white male independents and dems are finally backing Obama in much larger numbers than before.  So, the Wilder/Bradley effect may not be in play this time around.

Answer 4

I sure hope that you are wrong.  

Answer 5

I wish people had the same fear of being sexist.

Answer 6

I was undecided until John McCain picked Sarah Palin.   Now, I am decided to vote for Obama.    I thought it was reckless for him to make a snap judgment to pick his VP choice without vetting her.  I don't want a President that thinks like this...   If he can't even get his VP choice right, what else will he create as a Prez..    And also, after watching Obama's acceptance speech, I feel much more comfortable with him..     So, i'm now 100% decided to vote for Obama.. (unless off course something crazy happens between now and Nov 4th)

Answer 7

This is the only hope McCain has.

Answer 8

I'm not white but I think what you typed was interesting...but now a days i doubt any american is "afraid" to give their real opinion on the candidates...this election is wayyyyy past what color of skin the candidate has...most people are debating about the values and experience of each candidate...but ofcourse we all know that racist idiots do exist in America but they are very vocal about it.  

Answer 9

I've heard about this and think it's accurate. I don't think Barry will win, partially because of this. He's also way too liberal

Answer 10

They used that as an explanation of why Obama was going to lose to Hillary too.

Didn't work out that way, did it.

Answer 11

I must agree with you.  

Also, how many Republicans voted for Obama or Hillary just to skew the election?  How many voted against a candidate instead of for a candidate?  I would say approximately 50% of Hillary voters will not vote for Obama.  I voted for Obama in the primary and I am a republican.  I voted against Hillary Clinton.  I have made my mind up to vote for McCain due to Joe Biden being chosen as a running mate.

Answer 12

Wow, I thought we were just AMERICANS....

Answer 13

I was reading about this the other day, pretty interesting stuff.  There is a potentially notable difference in situations.  Obama is running for President whereas the other men you are talking about were generally local politicians.  My point being that you might give an honest answer if you didn't have a chance of knowing or running into the pollster later.  At any rate, particularly in the north, many of us were taught a more subtle form of racism than they were in the South.  We were taught that it was wrong to discriminate, that a black person (feel free to substitute ***** or colored person, but not the n word) could do whatever they wanted to.  But, don't associate with them.  We also have very distinct opinions on what sorts of things blacks should be doing - sports, dancing, singing, playing music, etc.  Running for President certainly wasn't one of those things, in fact running for elected office wasn't one of those things.  Much of what we were subtly taught might be referred to as "institutional racism."  Anyway, it seems to make sense that the motivational level would need to be somewhat higher to make us want to vote for a Barack Obama.  John McCain and George Bush are my motivation.  Obama wasn't my first choice, but I am very much in his column at this point.

Answer 14

I do recall that.  It certainly sounds like some humans I know.

Thanks for reminding us.

Answer 15

It's really a simple concept called human nature. If you are purple, then you tend to favor those who are purple. The same holds true for Obama and we all know it.