Deciding to call a fixture “Super Saturday” can render a racecourse a hostage to fortune. However, the officials at Newbury are unlikely to find anyone waving a copy of the Trades Descriptions Act under their noses this weekend.
A couple of headline acts and a race of such fiendish complexity that it makes killer sudoku look like the entrance exam for a kindergarten ensure that there is something to suit everyone. The totesport Trophy has been confounding punters for over 40 years and this year’s renewal appears no easier to crack than any of its predecessors.
There are plenty of familiar names within the ranks of the 24 runners but it is a pair of novices that make most appeal. Manyriverstocross and Any Given Saturday both ran at Newbury in the Grade One Challow Novices' Hurdle in December. Neither actually made the frame but there are good reasons to fancy their chances here.
Manyriverstocross never really figured in the race and that performance may best be forgotten as it came at a time when the Alan King yard was still struggling to finds its true form. A 98-rated runner on the Flat, Manyriverstocross proved that he could translate that level of performance to hurdling when he won a Grade Two novices’ hurdle at Sandown. The extended two miles of this race would not be his optimum trip but the guarantee of an end-to-end gallop will surely play to his stamina strengths.
Recent form suggests that King’s runners are coming back into much better form and this horse is one whom his trainer believes is capable of taking advantage of what may well be a lenient handicap mark before returning to the novice division for the Cheltenham Festival.
Manyriverstocross will be receiving 3lbs from Any Given Saturday, which may be just enough to get the verdict over a horse who is attractively priced for a place. He looked a real danger in the Challow, until his stamina ran out. However, the drop in trip of four-and-half furlongs gives him every chance here.
The chances of any horse giving Denman a race in the Grade Two Aon Chase look slim indeed. Denman will face five rivals led by stable companion Tricky Trickster, a leading Grand National contender, Niche Market, Air Force One, Ollie Magern and Wee Robbie. Given that Denman will be conceding no more than 6lbs to rivals whose inferiority, according to the official handicapper, is rated at between 29 and 62lbs this should be little more than a highly-remunerated exercise gallop.
In normal times the same might have been said of the appearance of Master Minded in the Grade Two totepool Game Spirit Chase. However, these have been far from normal times for both Master Minded and his trainer, Paul Nicholls. A lamentable first run of the season, in which Master Minded could finish only third in a conditions race at Cheltenham in November, was explained by the discovery of a fractured rib.
However, as the two horses who beat Master Minded that day – Well Chief and Mahogany Blaze – have failed to win again since, there are even more questions to be asked over Master Minded just over a month before he defends his title in the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
There are five runners who go to post but Fix The Rib, Kinkeel and Mahogany Blaze would all need a career-best to have any chance. A more realistic adversary is Voy Por Ustedes, a former Arkle Trophy and Champion Chase winner, who is dropping back to two miles after disappointing in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in December.
Voy Por Ustedes would be receiving 10lbs from Master Minded in a handicap and has yet to win in two runs this season. However, those statistics have to be factored into an equation over just how close Master Minded is to his best form. There is also a line of reasoning that Master Minded has never quite matched the form he showed when he beat Voy Por Ustedes by 18 lengths in the Champion Chase two years ago. That may well entice both bookmakers and exchange layers into offering more tempting odds.
Even Nicholls, with laudable candour, has questioned how well Master Minded may perform after his mid-season lay-off. However, it may be worth recalling that Nicholls was equally uncertain both times he ran Denman first time up in the Hennessy Gold Cup.
Both were a bad Saturday for bookmakers and layers alike.
Tags: