Maybe Dead Earth proof it is happening?

Question

Is the sun the reason for global warming

read this from professor Solanki -- 2004

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002242.html

.. . .. ...

And this article on Mars heating up also from the Times-online -- 2007

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1720024.ece

............

I was shocked

Answer 1

Instead of reading a paraphrase by futurepundit.com, it might be wise to actually read what Solanki wrote:

“[T]he current episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three decades.” http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/natu...

What's shocking is when deniers try to pass off sources that actually say the exact opposite of what they are claiming. We must read and think critically.

As for the second link, scientists attribute changes seen on Mars to orbital wobbles and large-scale dust storms, and not to changes in solar output.[1][2]

Answer 2

I don't know who Randall Parker is but he makes a lot of guesses in his blog there.

The article in that second link does not say anything about the climate change on Mars being attributed to the sun.  "The mechanism at work on Mars appears, however, to be different from that on Earth."

And from http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/G... "Scientists are still debating whether or not the Sun’s activity increased during the latter half of the 20th century, but even the highest estimates of activity can’t account for the warming observed since about 1950."

EDIT:  No one is denying the sun warms the earth.  It's just not the only factor in the earth's temperature.  If the sun were solely responsible for current warming, the temperature increase could be seen in all layers of the atmosphere, and it's not.  From the same source as above, "Instead they have observed a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere and a cooling in the upper atmosphere."  Plus this graph:  http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/G...

Answer 3

Scientists have PROVEN it's not the Sun.  One paper from 2007:

"Recent oppositely directed trends in solar

climate forcings and the global mean surface

air temperature", Lockwood and Frolich (2007), Proc. R. Soc. A

doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.1880

http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media/pro...

News article at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6290228.st...

The first website you cite starts out by quoting (selectively) some work from Solanki.  Here's what Solanki says about it:

"since about 1980, while the total solar radiation, its ultraviolet component, and the cosmic ray intensity all exhibit the 11-year solar periodicity, there has otherwise been no significant increase in their values. In contrast, the Earth has warmed up considerably within this time period. This means that the Sun is not the cause of the present global warming."

The website also pushes the "sunspot" theory, refuted here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/arc...

All the planets are not warming, just a few, for different reasons.  On Mars it's dust storms.  Proof:

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/researc...

On Earth it's mostly greenhouse gases.  As one scientist has said:

"The problem with putting another nail into the "It's the Sun" theory, is finding a place to put it."

Answer 4

No one should be shocked to find out the Sun warms the Earth.  The shock comes from the realization they had been convinced to believe otherwise.  

Solar cycle variations have always coincided with climate change...and they always will.  This "warming trend" perfectly mirrors the Modern Maximum.  

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Ima...

Answer 5

Actually, the 20th century did not warm uniformly.  The 1930s were very warm, and by the 1940s, CO2 levels had risen to over 400 ppm because warmer oceans release CO2 and cooler waters absorb it.

But a cooling period set in from 1940 to 1970 coinciding with an extremely "cool" sun in Solar Cycle 20.

Then warming increased again until 1998 - an exceptionally hot spike attributed to a strong El Nino in the Southern Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Since then, there has been another cooling trend of about 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade.  This past exceptionally cold winter has effective wiped out all of the warming of the 20th Century.

Solar scientists are eagerly watching the sun ( which has been alarmingly blank for a long time ) looking for the first sunspot which will herald the actual start of Solar Cycle 24.

Past history of solar activity indicates a long solar cycle ( such as the current Cycle 23 ) often precluded a strong cooling cycle.

Thus, we may be heading for strong cooling in the future... and that is not good news.  Agriculture will suffer while world populations continue to grow.  You can become a "sunspot watcher" by visiting the Solar Cycle 24 web site listed below in the links.

Oh, and CO2 was never the culprit at any rate.  By reviewing the atomic absorption physics, one can readily see that CO2 is "tapped out" as a greenhouse gas.  Warming is not a linear function of CO2 content.  The first 100ppm of CO2 is capable of raising the temperature about 1.5 degrees.  But it takes another 400ppm to raise it another 1.5 degrees.  Those of you who understand exponential functions and have a working understanding of the Stefan-Boltzman equation, may enjoy reading the paper by John Nicol which I have referenced below.  The bottom line is, at current levels of about 385ppm, CO2 is working at near peak ability to transfer heat into the atmosphere.  Adding a larger hose ( more CO2) cannot increase the flow to the garden if the water faucet source ( the sun in our analogy ) is fixed.

You may also be amused by my editorial listed below in the link references which is a highly simplified discussion of the subject written for the layman.

I am an atmospheric physicist, but other works by oceanographers, solar scientists, paeleoclimatologists, and such are also interesting to read on the subject.