Meteorologists: Weather in Key West 4/18-4/23?

Question

So looking at the GFS and other models, what do you forecast for Key West from 4/18-4/23? What would the highs/lows be, and POPS, and turena of precip (long duration showers, quick convective showers, etc.)?

Answer 1

I'm too lazy to actually go look at the models, but for making long range forecasts, here are some things you will want to do:

1. Check the models (obviously.)

A good site for this is: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/...

2. Check the ensemble probabilities and spaghetti charts.

These will tell you how uncertain the models are about certain events, and can be very useful when predicting big weather (fronts and such) a long way out. The same site as before also has a bunch of these types of charts.

3. Decide what uncertainties there are in the forecast.

Models can be wrong for any number of reasons. For example, in Key West, a model may not pick up shoreline dynamics (sea/land breezes, etc.) If it is forecasting big weather, shoreline dynamics may not be that important, but surface/atmosphere interactions may be important and a model with large grid spacing won't pick up the details of what areas are water and what areas are land.

4. Check the climatic data.

Actually you should probably do this first. I find the best site for this is actually weather.com:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/homeandga...

Use this information with your uncertainties. If there are large uncertainties, you can bias your forecast toward the climatic averages or away from them depending on what you think may happen, then continue to adjust your forecast as the forecast period gets closer and model prediction get more accurate.

Answer 2

i have lived in south florida for 15 years...here would be your forecast...mid to upper 80's for the high...and upper 60's to low 70's for the lows.  expect LOTS of sunshine with plenty of breeze.  trust me.  and for the record, that is what it is like today as well.  have fun.  you might get a few afternoon showers, but they don't take up your entire afternoon or day...just a few minutes or maybe long enough to hop into the bar for a cold one or two...