More a forum question on Blu Ray?

Question

Does anyone else think that blu ray may go down the road of the old philps video disks (anyone born after 1976 probaly wont know them) they were dvds but the size of LPs

Answer 1

While it is still a possibility, it is unlikely. Here's why:

Those phillips discs only had one purpose. That was video. As a result it was imperitive that it get market saturation for video. It was competing against a well accepted format that had a critical feature that it did not...the VHS tape could record.

Blu-Ray discs have multiple purposes. They are useful in computers, game consoles and movie players. Crossing formats will give it quite a it more acceptability as a medium. Also, it has achieved a significant market saturation for both users AND studios. Having acceptance of the Hollywood studios is big and almost all of the studios have embraced it so most of the biggies for at least the next few years will appear on Blu-Ray.

So, no I doubt it will be the debacle of the Phillips video discs.

Answer 2

To be honest, I think it's very possible because most people prefer downloadable content than the actual disk itself.  Think how popular downloads have become.  Most DVD rental stores have gone out of business.  

The thing that could prevent Blu-ray going the video disk way is that it's high def, so if people want to download the movie, it's going to take quite a lot of time, so it might be easier to just buy the Blu-ray disk.

Answer 3

The first person brought up downloads as being the likely downfall of Blu Ray or any other physical HD format. This could be likely in years to come but not so relevant at this time. Downloads not only take quite a while at HD bandwidths, but you often lose quality in video and sound due to compression issues with downloading. I think Blu Ray will stick around until something better comes out or our internet bandwidth speeds increase enough to allow a full transfer with 1080p resolution and Dolby Digital TrueHD sound.

Answer 4

Most people are still buying regular DVDs.

Answer 5

I believe you mean Laserdiscs, and yes, I think there is definitely a possibility of that (i.e. become a niche format popular with videophiles, but not mainstream consumers).

There are a number of problems for Blu-ray that could result in it remaining an HD alternative to DVD (rather than a replacement).

1) Unlike DVD which was potentially beneficial to all consumers with a TV, Blu-ray is only a benefit to HDTV owners -- (currently) about 30% of consumers.

2) Unlike VHS>>DVD -- which solved all of the problems with tape (poor video quality, no random access, fragility, gradual degradation, bulky) -- DVD>Blu-ray only gives a marginally prettier picture and actually decreases convenience since Blu-ray disks can't be use on portable players (cars, portables), nor can disks be backed up/copied.

3) Blu-ray is unlikely to ever sell for the same price as DVD. The licensing costs alone are more expensive, as are components such as blu lasers (and Blu-ray players require both a blu and red laser), so players will remain more expensive. Secondly disks are more expensive to master and studios are highly unlikely to want to sell Blu-ray disks for the same price as DVDs (why accept a lower profit margin ... might as well just sell DVDs)

4) DVDs can be upconverted and give results very close to Blu-ray quality. Many consumers have no compelling reason to switch to Blu-ray, as long as prices are more expensive.

5) There is a gradually increasing range of alternative mechanisms for accessing video content (both DVD and HD quality). While there are still infrastructure and business model issues (e.g. pricing, ability to make copies/transcode/obtain copies if the original is lost) to be resolved, and a portion of consumers prefer to own a physical disk, download and video on demand type services will gradually grow in popularity (particularly as an alternative to disk rental). I don't believe it will replace disk ownership, but it will be a major alternative.

Note that critics say "but it won't equal Blu-ray quality", BUT many consumers will be happy to have sub-1080p quality (think MP3 quality vs CD) in return for the increased convenience (and lower cost) in the sense of no going to the rental store, being able to store movies on a central media server, etc.

6) Video processor technology -- like cell processor based super upconversion, and reasonably priced outboard processors -- can be expected to be available in the next couple of years that will make DVD look even closer to Blu-ray quality to extend the lifetime of DVD libraries (reducing the chance that consumers will rebuy existing DVD libraries (other than selected titles that really benefit from Blu-ray).

7) The time window for Blu-ray is relatively short. Better formats are in the wings (to solve banding and still limited resolution and colour gamut weaknesses of the Blu-ray format) and download/VOD at full 1080p/lossless audio quality (e.g. XStreamHD due this fall) will increasingly be available.

8) There are 83,000 DVD titles and a bit over 500 Blu-ray. The number of new DVDs is expanding much faster than Blu-ray disks. While this may change, a high proportion of DVDs won't ever be ported to Blu-ray (the market isn't there).

9) Too many Blu-ray disks are relatively poor quality transfers. Consumers can be expected to increasingly resist premium prices for substandard titles.

So, in summary, while Blu-ray does potentially provide the best quality sound and video available to consumers, the majority of consumers either don't have equipment necessary to benefit or are unwilling to pay a premium price for what they perceive as a marginal improvement, and will choose to stay with DVD or gradually switch to more convenient on-line alternatives to physical disks.

Bottom line ... Blu-ray will most likely remain a niche premium alternative to DVD.