Murtagh right to pick Jan Vermeer in Derby
The old adage is to never to look a gift horse in the mouth and Johnny Murtagh has followed that thinking.
Twice he had the opportunity to ride Jan Vermeer last season, in a maiden at Gowran Park in September and then the Group One Criterium International at Saint-Cloud in November.
Both times Murtagh opted to ride another Aidan O’Brien runner, Midas Touch, and all he got for his efforts was a sight of Jan Vermeer’s tail heading for the winning post and a heft nudge not to make the same mistake again.
Colm O'Donoghue rides Midas Touch at Epsom while Murtagh attempts to provide the O’Brien yard with a third Derby winner.
Jan Vermeer has been at the head of the market for the Investec Derby since the first rumours that all was not well with stable companion St Nicholas Abbey and statistics show that there have been four winning favourites (including joint-favourites) in the Derby in the last 10 years.
The other six winners had been near the top of the market; and it seems unlikely that there will be a surprise result.
Jan Vermeer improved with each run as a two-year-old and the only reason that he came to the fore in the Derby reckoning late on was down to a hold up in training due to a minor foot injury. However, he was very impressive when he won the Gallinule Stakes, over 10 furlongs, at the Curragh on his latest start.
The form of beating Bobbyscot by one-and-three-quarter lengths may not amount to much but the winning margin could have been a lot more and Jan Vermeer was conceding a 7lb penalty for has Group One victory. His breeding – by Montjeu out of the Pennekamp mare Shadow Song – means that Jan Vermeer is not guaranteed to stay, on breeding from dam’s side, but he got the mile well enough as a two-year-old and did not look like stopping at the Curragh.
If the market is used as a guide then Workforce represents a real threat to Jan Vermeer. A winner of his only start as a juvenile at Goodwood last September, Workforce was another who was kept off the track in the early season and just about everything went wrong when he ran behind Cape Blanco in the Dante Stakes at York. The ground was too fast and the bit slipped through his mouth but, looking at the positives, the colt has, according to trainer Sir Michael Stoute, come on from the experience.
Another statistic that no horse has been beaten in the Dante and then won the Derby but the biggest concern is that Stoute really wanted Workforce to have two runs before the Derby and he may just lack the experience – even if there are only 12 runners.
Golophin have yet to experience winning the Derby and they have three runners - Rewilding, Al Zir and Buzzword - trying to break that sequence of 20 runners whose best return is a second place for Rule Of Law in 2004. Rewilding - running for new Godolphin trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni - is the choice of Frankie Dettori and did little wrong when he won a Listed race at Goodwood three weeks ago but the form looks some way short of what is required here. He is clearly a colt of some potential but this may be all just a bit too soon for him.
Al Zir is hard to fancy on his last run – he finished six-and-a-quarter lengths ninth to Makfi in the 2000 Guineas – but the thinking is that he could improve for the step up in trip and the booking of Kieren Fallon makes him interesting. No-one rides Epsom these days better than Fallon and Al Zir could be a mover in the market during day.
The first of Fallon’s three victories in the Derby came on the Henry Cecil-trained Oath in 1999 and Cecil will be bidding for a fifth winner with Bullet Train. The trainer did not seem too impressed when Bullet Train won the Derby Trial at Lingfield but has become more inclined to think that Bullet Train can be a contender.
He will need a big improvement to win but a place is possible and the same can be said of Azmeel, who looked the part when he won the Dee Stakes at Chester although stamina has to be taken on trust.
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