ROY Betting Odds Analysis
The upcoming National Football League season is just as exciting for bettors as it is for plain old fans. One of the more dynamic betting scenarios is that involving prospective offensive Rookie of the Year Award winners. Sportsbook.com recently released their odds on the top rookies.
These odds are almost always stacked towards running backs, the easiest position to play straight out of college, but what does that mean for bettors? Last year, Knowshon Moreno was the 3-1 fave for Offensive ROY based and 72% of ROY winners since 1967 have played running back. However, the ROY Award went to the 8-1 Percy Harvin. Here is an analysis of this year’s contenders based on Sportsbook’s odds:
Ryan Matthews, RB San Diego Chargers, 4.5 – 1: Matthews’s odds are based heavily on the running back ROY win rate. He is a strong college runner who is being sent to a possible Super Bowl contender. Since the Chargers’ other running back is the diminutive but agile Darren Sproles, Matthews has an easy chance of being the team’s No. 1 running back if he stays healthy and will have lots of carries to prove himself.
But Matthews ought to be more like a 6-1.The Chargers’ receiving unit is practically in shambles right now and without a strong passing game it will be hard for them to open up the field for running possibilities. Matthews isn’t a Chris Johnson type player who can just create his own opportunities, he needs the receiving unit to help open up the defensive lines. Also, the Chargers are painfully slow starters and Matthews will have to get most of his production in the second half of the season when the Chargers come into their own.
Dez Bryant, WR Dallas Cowboys, 4.5 - 1: Bryant is easily a top-10 talent in this year’s draft, but had the stigma of being kicked off the Oklahoma State University surrounding him. He enters a great situation for a rookie receiver by playing opposite Miles Austin. Tight end Jason Witten will also take a lot of pressure off Bryant, which means he can just go out there and play.
Additionally, Bryant’s situation is very similar to what Harvin had last year: an established confident quarterback, a No. 1 receiver already present, a good running game, and solid tight end support.
Ben Tate, RB Houston Texas, 6 – 1: Tate’s chances are also inflated due to running back bias in ROY betting. His success depends mainly on current Texans’ RB Steve Slaton. If Slaton returns to the form he exhibited as a rookie, Tate won’t be getting many carries and will not be a contender for ROY. If Slaton continues his sophomore struggles, Tate may become the Texans’ starter.
The Texans have a strong quarterback in Matt Schaub, and his passing should open up the lanes. Whoever the runner for Houston is should be able to succeed, but Slaton is definitely not going to just give up his starting position without some serious competition.
C.J. Spiller, RB Buffalo Bills, 8 – 1: Spiller was the top running back pick in this year’s draft, and his odds are dampened by him entering a backfield that already has Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Spiller’s got the most running talent in the draft, and after training camp he could easily be ahead of Jackson and Lynch.
Spiller’s 8-1 odds make him the best value of all ROY selections. Spiller dominated the collegiate ranks and ran 1,200 yards his senior year while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Also, Lynch is not the most mentally sound running back and Jackson is just not that good. Jackson’s 1,000 yard year occurred because he got to play against the Indianapolis Colts’ 3rd-string defence in Week 17. If the Bills were confident in their running backs, they wouldn’t have drafted Spiller, so look for him to make some serious waves.
Sam Bradford, QB St. Louis Rams, 8 – 1: Quarterbacks don’t often win ROY honours. The three modern QBs who have won, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Vince Young, all had much stronger receivers to work with and better offensive lines to protect them.
Bradford will most likely be facing a lot of third-and-long passing situations after teams stack their defence to stop the Rams only weapon, running back Steven Jackson. If Bradford can convert those long passes consistently though, his ROY odds are a whole different story.
Tags: