NHLE: When should you drop or play coin toss situations?

Question

Imho, the entire tourney hinges on winning coin toss situations like a small pair vs overcards. How often should you play or drop these? Is there a really safe way to play them?

Answer 1

Calculate the amount you need to put in the middle vs the amount of chips you will profit if you have the best hand at the end... i.e. pot odds.

If you are getting better than even money on your call / shove, then it is the correct and profitable play.

Tournament results are highly waited on what many players would call "luck". You are not going to find a strategy to avoid this fact. Trying to avoid coin flip situations b/c you MAY lose will simply reduce your chances of success.

As a side note, the advice above is laughable. If you want to have long term success you should never avoid a profitable situation b/c you believe you may find a more profitable situation in the future.

Answer 2

Unless you are in the slowest tournament in the world, you can't hope to win, and not even cash, by avoiding coin tosses.  Get real, I mean any hand but a/a and k/k is potentially a coin toss.  If you are playing tight enough to avoid all coin toss situations, you are not going to get action when you do play your one hand of the evening.  You have to win your share of the races in order to win the tournament, and I don't know about you, unless it is a satelitte, I am generally playing to win.  I get looser as the bubble approaches, I tighten up once it is busted (backwards to how most play).  If I wanted to just win my money back or just cash for the time invested, I wouldn't have left the cash game to sit at the tournament.  I believe your humble opinion is correct, ya gotta run the races and win most, if you want to win the tournament.  As for is there a safe way to play them...play them in small pots, and not in big ones.  That is about the only safe way to play them, just like a coin toss, risk as little as possible on them.  However, there comes a time in every tournament's life, you gotta just get your chips in and hope to out run your opponent.

Answer 3

In my opinion, you should avoid them ALMOST all the time.

If you're priced into a coinflip on your Blind, either because your opponent has a very small stack or you do, then you have to take your shot.

Or, if you find yourself overmatched late in the tourney, where you're playing against better, more experienced players, then it's ok to switch to 'lottery mode' and let the luck of the cards play a more significant role.  {Yes, I know you're a brilliant poker strategist, we all are, but trust me ... NO ONE who spends his time asking or answering questions on Yahoo is liable to be outplaying Gus, Daniel, Doyle and Phil at the final table.  I know it hurts, but it's true.}

Answer 4

I would wait for two extreme situations.  First is when I'm down to bare bones as far as chip stack is concerned, and the blinds are high.  I'll push with 88 or lower in these situations.

On the other hand, if I have KJ and I'm the clear chip leader, I wouldn't mind calling an all-in for say, 1-2% max of my stack.

Answer 5

it depends on a lot of factors

the biggest factor is, are you a better player than the field? this is a difficult determination for many as a lot of players believe they are better than they actually are, but if you feel that you are better than the field then you should avoid coin flips like the plague unless you are mathematically committed...the reason for this is because as a good player, you can find better spots to put all your money in than a race, because you should find a worse player who will give you all their money

also, as mentioned, stack sizes play a big role...if you are short, you should want to play a coin flip and hope to double up if you get the chance, because you will need chips to be able to fight...also, if your opponent is short stacked, you will likely be getting the right price to call and hope to bust a player

and i have to say that if you think tournaments are won and lost with coin flips that you are playing too many fast-paced tournaments...if you play a slower tournament you will see that there is more to tournaments than just races all-in before the flop

Answer 6

I feel much safer seeing flops and know where I stand.

I try not to get in these situations unless the stacks and bets dictate it. Or when at the final tables.

Otherwise I like to avoid these situations.

You can choose not to do it with any hand but Aces and still lose the battle. I always want to know where I stand.