NLHE: Does your luck usually come in bunches?

Question

In NLHE, do you find that for X amount of time, there's nothing you can do right, and for another stretch of time, there's nothing you can do wrong?

Usually for me, I can go days at a time without getting a winning hand, even if it's AA. However, if I win a tournament, it seems like there was no way anyone could have stopped me, no matter how bad my hand or good their hand was.

Answer 1

that's what they like to call rushes, my friend

even though i'm a pretty logical person and i understand that all the luck evens out in the end, i am a believer somewhat in playing rushes...if you read super system and super system 2, you will find that doyle brunson is a big fan of playing your card rushes, because people play worse against you when you are making hand after hand against them

Answer 2

I definitely think it does, and as other posters have noted it's known as a "rush".  The thing to remember is that there really isn't such a thing as "luck", there is only statistical improbability coupled with variance.  And improbable does not mean impossible.  Take a coin flip.  I can easily calculate the probability of flipping 4 heads in a row, it's pretty low (1/16).  But now suppose I flip the coin numerous times, like playing a bunch of hands in a card game.  Now, if I flip the coin 20 times I have a 50% chance of seeing four heads come up in a row somewhere in the sequence.  The chance of seeing an improbable event has become more likely by increasing my time scale.  The same concept holds true in poker.  Improbable bunches of "luck", while not likely in a strict sense, become more likely the more hands you play.  The equation I'm basing this on is:

                  

     q(n) = [(1 - px)/(r+1-rx)q] - [1/{x^(n+1)}]

Remember, if luck didn't come in bunches then Vegas would be out of business because nobody would play.  When you're on a table game like craps you're betting that the short term variance (often known as luck) will overcome the long term probability.  The casino sees enough throws that the variance smooths out to zero, but the player is trying to cash in on the short term spikes.  Poker is able to be "beaten" because you can alter your bet AFTER seeing what you have.  A long string of c**p cards isn't expensive if you just fold every single hand.  And a rush of good cards can pay huge because that's when you get your money in.

Speaking outside mathematics, the other day I played a s'n'g where every time I bluffed my opponents folded, every time I pushed with a monster I got called, every time I limped nobody raised, and I won every race.  The next night I got busted out inside of 5 minutes when some donkey holding K4 called my 4X BB raise with pocket aces and hit both a king and a four on the flop.  I jumped into another game and had pocket kings cracked by a smaller pair, flopped a set and the guy hit running cards to make his flush, and busted out when I went all in with big slick and somebody called me with pocket dueces.

Answer 3

i believe in rushes.... i know all the maths but sometimes you feel a flow to the game.. sometimes the flow is with you and sometimes its against you.. when its with you, you gotta give yourself a chance at picking up a good rush by taking the risk.. of course there are times when everything goes bad...