NO!!!! RAin?! meteorlogist?!?

Question

I have been planning this special day for like ever! IT's my big sister's b-day and I've planned this day where I gathered up a few friends to go to my sister's favorite amusement park. It took me a long time because everybody has work and other important things, so its been chaotic. But I managed to pull a day, the 21st of July. But it's gonna rain in my area that day 60% scattereed T-storms!!!!!

The question is, its 7 days til the 21st how likely wil lthe weather change? And since from the 16-20 its going to be high temperatures low to mids 90s, i heard covnectional rain is cuased by high temperautres!!!

Answer 1

I have been a weather forecaster for many years.  To this day, I don't know any meteorologist who can put out a day seven forecast with much confidence.  My advice, start monitoring the forecasts about 5 days out.  Any forecasts 5 to 7 days out, you should just look at the trend between each of the forecasts.

Answer 2

In seven days, the weather forecast can change a lot! Please believe me; I have been sailing all my life and now, at 60, I fly my own little airplane and knowing the weather is vital to me.

There is no way to predict accurately when a low pressure associated with rain and thunderstorm will come. Sometimes lows change their paths, sometimes they stop moving and fill up. The only thing meteorologists can do is to guess what they will do based on previous data stored in a computer.

Temperature is not the reason for rain. The difference of temperature between the surface and upper atmosphere is the reason. But, at home, you have no way to know that.

However, in Northern Europe, if the polar front has moved much north, giving place to warm and humid air from the south, it is quite likely that after a few days a cold front will form, pushing again polar air from the west.

When that happens, the air is very unstable and much colder air comes on the top of warm and moist air and thunderstorms with wind gusts are most likely to happen.

Answer 3

The rain in the forecast can and probobly will change. I live near chicago, and living near lakes as larrge as  michigan... the fronts are unforgiving :(