Next evolution in cars or vehicles?????

Question

So I live in California where I just paid $4.87 for 87 gas -- and that was at the cheap place. Trust me, I don't like Cali, but my husband and I are here due to family and will be moving back to Colorado soon. It now costs me $52 to fill up my 2002 Dodge, which btw gets 34 mpg. We need to buy a new car since we have the one between us and 2 huskies and a baby on the way. My question is, should we buy into the whole fuel efficient c**p (which it is) and bite the bullet and get a new car. OR fo you think that America is in the tail end of the "VCR/DVD" situation where they will actually make a real fuel efficient car or alternitive method that is realistic? I mean Hydogen and plug in sound great, but you are limited to fuel stations,etc. What do YOU think will happen? I know a doctor in town that takes a horse and buggy to work and promotes his staff and patients to do it as well - -I think that's awesome, but not realistic for everyone.

Answer 1

The reality is you've got plenty of time (at least the lifetime of this next car you're planning on purchasing) before any real changes happen, ie, seeing hydrogen at every Texaco street corner.

Just get the car thats cheapest to run that still fits your needs.

Answer 2

I think electric cars will be big as battery technology will improve the electric cars will command a premium price as every one will want one. All they have to do is produce one with decent range like 200 miles or more.

Answer 3

The next evolution will be ethanol powered cars.  They will be more common place in the next 3 to 5 years.  For them to be more accepted, the E85 manufacturers need to make the ethanol out of something different than food products such as corn.  Celulostic ethanol is the most promising alternative.  This could be made from switch grass, waste wood byproducts, corn stalks, etc.  When these engines are tuned to run primarily on E85 instead of gasoline, performance and fuel economy will greatly improve.  Current flex fuel models are de-tuned to run on low octane gasoline instead of 107 octane ethanol only.  When E85 is more common, you may see some E85 only cars.  These will run much better than flex fuel cars.

Bio-diesel will also be more common soon.  There are prototype refineries making this out of algae.  The manufacturing process will be more efficient than current methods.  No modifications to run current diesel engines on this fuel.  I look to see this more common in the next 3 to 5 yeas also.

Battery powered electric cars will also find their niche.  These will make nice commuter cars when the technology is ready.  But there needs to be improvements in battery technology.  The batteries need to have more range.  They also need a faster recharging time.  And the battery packs need to be less expensive so the vehicles cost is more in line with their gasoline counter parts.  People are not going to jump at a $50,000 electric car.  You may sell a few to some tree huggers, but that's about it.  The cost of this car needs to come down to below $20,000 for it to really sell.  Expect to see more of these in the next few years.  But don't expect them to be common for the next 5 to 7 years.

Hydrogen is much farther off.  There is a problem with current hydrogen fuel cell that they aren't telling you about.  The membrane in the fuel cell doesn't last very long and is expensive to replace.  The equivilant of having to replace your gasoline engine every year.  This will not be acceptible to the consumer.  There is also a which comes first problem.  There needs to be a distribution and refueling system established before people will buy this car.  Who wants a car that you need to drive 200 miles to refuel.  But the distribution system won't be in place until there are more of these vehicles on the road.  Would you spend over $100,000 to put in a refueling station if there were only 3 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on your county?  Realistically, don't expect to see hydrogen fuel cell cars to be common for the next 15 - 20 years.