It may be invisible but everyone can see the difference it makes. It goes by many names – luck, fate, destiny and chance are just a few of its sobriquets – but two trainers left Newbury on Saturday wondering whether this precious commodity was on their side.
If records are there to be broken, then Paul Nicholls may never have a better chance to win the John Smith's Grand National.
The champion trainer may have a near hegemony on the Cheltenham Gold Cup but his record of 0-44 in the Grand National shows that even he is fallible. But he goes to Aintree next month with joint-favourites for the race after Big Fella Thanks won the Raymond Mould Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup. His stable companion, Tricky Trickster, had already cemented his place in the market when he won the Aon Chase at Newbury last month and Nicholls now has his best chance of claiming one of the few glittering prizes to have remained out of his reach.
The win for Big Fella Thanks, an 8-1 shot, was something of a surprise as Ruby Walsh had elected to ride stable companion Pasco, the 5-2 favourite who finished second, over a two-and-a-half-mile trip that seemed too short to play to Big Fella Thanks’ stamina gifts, thus gifting Barry Geraghty a profitable spare ride.
Nicholls looked just slightly bemused by the turn of events but he is wise enough to know that horses have a never-ending capacity for making fools of men and concentrated on a performance that seemed to offer all the ingredients needed to change the trainer’s luck in the National. Of his 44 runners, the closest Nicholls has got to winning was when Royal Auclair finished second to Hedgehunter in 2005 although, at a distance of 14 lengths, it was not that close at all.
"All credit to Ruby," Nicholls said "he said to me all year 'we know he stays, go back in trip; wake him up', because he'd got a bit sleepy in his races so we went two-and-a-half miles to sharpen him up. I thought today he'd run a nice race and sharpen his jumping up. After they jumped four I couldn't believe where he'd found the speed from. He travelled so well which is what you want to see at Aintree. If you've got a bit of speed and you know you stay, you're sorted."
Walsh is now left to sort out which horse he rides, with a third option in the Willie Mullins-trained Snowy Morning, and, depending on his choice, Geraghty may find himself coming in for another prime spare ride for the National.
Geraghty had a good day at the office with a 35-1 double, but faces an anxious wait to see if Punchestowns will be fit to run in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Punchestowns had become the latest injury scare for the Festival after his trainer, Nicky Henderson, announced last Friday that the horse had a problem with his near-fore hoof and Henderson was in philosophical mood when he said: "Today he is sound, today he canters - tomorrow he might be lame. This is going to be a long, long old saga. He and Binocular went for a nice canter this morning and they were in great form.”
This is likely to be one of the most precarious balancing acts of Henderson's 35-year career, who showed his resilience to get the fragile See You Then to win three Champion Hurdles in the 1980s, but he is prepared to go right to the wire. "You have to,” he said. “He was sound on Wednesday and he worked, but he went lame again after it. So I'm going to try and canter through the weekend and he and Binocular will work again later. He hasn't missed anything, although now it's going to be an unconventional preparation. We changed his shoe, he's had an MRI scan - everything says it's perfectly alright. The guys are on top of it, there's nothing clinically wrong - it's just the timing of these things are always bad.
"If we get lucky, we'll get there."
Luck may be invisible but Henderson will soon know if it is likely to makes its presence felt.
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