No Harbinger of doom for Sir Michael Stoute
Facts and figures can sound impressive but they have yet to be known to encourage a horse to run faster.
That said, the statistics behind Harbinger’s chances in the Group Three Boodles Diamond Ormonde Stakes at Chester are compelling. Sir Michael Stoute has a 22% strike-rate with his runners at the track in the last five seasons while he has 28% strike-rate with his runners in long-distances races over the same period.
This season his older-horse division has been winning at a rate of 26% and his strike-rate in Group races stands at 43%. Harbinger did his bit for both of those figures when he won the Group Three John Porter Stakes at Newbury last month. He was travelling the best of them from some way out and, when asked to quicken, did so in some style. Stamina has to be an issue but this race might be more tactical than end-to-end gallop.
Harbinger, a course winner last year, must carry a 3lb penalty and, on official handicap figures, he has something to find with the Aidan O’Brien runner, Age Of Aquarius.
Age Of Aquarius was one-and-a-half lengths second to Cavalryman in the Grand Prix De Paris last July but, coming back from a 297-day layoff and with the yard’s runners appearing to be taking a first run to hit form, he may just come up short this time.
The Group Three Addleshaw Goddard Dee Stakes has produced the Derby winner twice in the past 11 years. The last of those, Kris Kin in 2003, was trained by Stoute but his runner this year, Desert Myth, has been scratched in favour of tomorrow's totesport.com Derby Trial at Lingfield
Park while the stable's most prominent Derby candidate, Workforce, is expected to contest next week's totesport Dante Stakes at York.
Of those left in the Dee the three who are likely to dominate – in the market at least – are Dancing David, Encompassing and Azmeel.
Dancing David comes into the race with arguably the best form, having chased home Elusive Pimpernel in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket last month. However he was beaten four lengths, his breeding might just be a little light on stamina and the yard has still not quite hit full form.
The current form of the O’Brien yard makes Encompassing one to pass over but John Gosden is still clearly a trainer to follow with a 21% strike-rate for the last five weeks that shows little sign of slackening. Amzeel’s recent entry for the Eclipse Stakes suggests a degree of belief in his quality and he looked horse with a future when he chased home Chabal in the Classic Trial at Sandown Park two weeks ago.
The last time that Invisible Man ran for Gosden he disappointed when finishing lame at Goodwood. But he had looked a progressive type and can continue that upward trend on his first start for Godolphin in the Sl Investment Management Earl Grosvenor Handicap. It is easy to forget that this yard, which prefers to operate at the top end of the market, can be worth following with their handicap runners - as 24% strike-rate amply demonstrates.
The sprint races this week have, once again, demonstrated the need for a fast start and if Falasteen can break smartly he can win the sportingbet.com Handicap.
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