Now that the order of picking Post Positions is in "Eight Belles picks 6TH. How does She finish in the Derby?

Question

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Unbeaten Big Brown and the filly Eight Belles are among a full field of 20 horses entered for the Kentucky Derby.

A total of 24 horses were placed into the entry box Wednesday morning, but only the top 20 horses based on graded stakes earnings made the field, including the first filly in nine years.

Big Brown, the expected Derby favorite, will have the No. 16 selection at the post position draw later Wednesday.

The field, in order of post position draw, is Visionaire, Big Truck, Colonel John, Z Fortune, Pyro, Eight Belles, Anak Nakal, Court Vision, Z Humor, Monba, Smooth Air, Adriano, Bob Black Jack, Denis of Cork, Cowboy Cal, Big Brown, Tale of Ekati, Cool Coal Man, Recapturetheglory and Gayego.

The four excluded were Halo Najib, Tomcito, El Gato Malo and Kentucky Bear.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/news/story?id=3375092

Answer 1

This still depends on where they put her and who is around her.  Since the pace horses are drawing last, and since the 1 and 2 holes are traditionally left for the last 5 horses to draw, I want to see how much pace is breaking from her inside.  I also want to see how many closer types are breaking around her to see how well she is going to break and what kind of position she is likely to get in the early race.  If Pyro and Visionaire are the 2 horses to her inside, she'll get over to the rail a couple of paths before the turn and that will work out well.  She doesn't break particularly well since she's a big horse... she usually catches the pace on the backstretch/far turn and leads when they enter the stretch.  I'd like to see her placed in a position where she'll be able to do that again.  She's a filly who likes to come up on the pace after a half mile and I don't want her trying to run down this pace from the outside, so I'd like to see her get a post that's gonna give her a good rail trip so she doesn't have to work to hard to stay close to the pace.  I'd really prefer to see Big Brown placed outside of Eight Belles because I am concerned that if she tries to run him down from the outside, she's not going to be able to catch him.

She'll definately get a good inside post and I really like this filly's experience.  She reminds me a lot of Winning Colors... they are both big fillies with a big stride.  Eight Belles has shown that she can run a fast time under a hand ride and that she can come out on top in a battle to the finish.  I think she will absolutely be in the trifecta.  I'll look at the post positions after the draw and decide whether I'll bet her for the winning spot or not.

Edit: she got an excellent post!  I was really hoping she'd take the 5 instead of the 10 and she did.  And then it couldn't have set up any better when the horses picked inside her.  She has 2 to her inside that are going to break slowly, she has 1 that's unclear (Court vision may shoot out of there with the blinkers... dunno), and one that's going to break and run out to the lead... SHe'll get an easy run near the rail right behind the pace.  And with Big Brown on the outside not in front setting a fast pace, the race will set up great for a stalker like Eight Belles to turn on her race at the 3/8 pole and them make the lead and run away.  I wasn't sure about betting her in the win spot of the tri, but I'm pretty sure now.  SHe'll definately be in the tri, and absolutely has an excellent chance to win!!

Answer 2

In loving memory of Eight Belles!!!!

Answer 3

She will finish fourth, she will lead at the quarter pool then Gayago will chalenge and take the lead, big brown will be there too. At the steetch however Colonel John makes a late charge and wins the race, Big Brown will be second and adraino third

Answer 4

Eight Belles, Big Brown, and Colonel John are all looking good, those are all really top notch contenders... it's going to depend on the track conditions, because the Oaks today was really sloppy.

    Check out how these cappers did in last year's derby:

    http://www.winningponies.com/results/pic...