After two days the news from Cheltenham is that the winning favourite has been placed on the endangered species list along with the white rhino and the straight-talking politician.
There have been two favourites who have given backers a brief respite but the defeat of Master Minded yesterday was another solid hit and there will be a few bank balances showing a fetching shade of scarlet this morning.
The latest hotpot on the Festival menu is Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle. He is the top-rated horse in this race and the top-rated hurdler - over any distance - in either Britain or Ireland. What could go wrong?
However, those looking for a boost to their confidence might not want to listen to his trainer, Paul Nicholls. He has described Big Buck's, unbeaten in six hurdle starts in Britain, as being the type who "will get himself beat one day by pulling himself up."
The long sweep from the home turn at Cheltenham, with the grinding climb to the winning post, does not suit every horse but Katchit has a 55% strike-rate there, culminating in his victory in the 2008 Champion Hurdle. He has not won since but all reports from his trainer, Alan King, suggest that Katchit may be getting back to his best form and that final-furlong ascent may be all he needs.
Another horse who is overdue a win is Barbers Shop but he can be back in business in the other Grade One race on the card, the Ryanair Chase.
Barbers Shop has not won since December 2008 but he has only run three times. He palpably failed to stay the trip behind Kauto Star in last season's Cheltenham Gold Cup or when tailing in after Denman in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November. And it was no great disgrace when he could not live with Kauto Star once more, this time in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.
However, his form in last season's Paddy Power Gold Cup, when he was two-and-three-quarter lengths second to Imperial Commander conceding 3lbs, reads very well. He should have no problem handling the quick ground, which must be against a mud-lover like Tranquil Sea, and may just have the measure of Poquelin.
Nicholls may not have dominated this meeting thus far but there is still plenty of ammunition left to fire including Alfie Sherrin in the Pertemps Final. This will be only his fifth run of his career but his win at Newbury last month has worked out very well, with four winners coming out of it since. The handicapper took note and raised him 12lbs but this horse looks the type to be well ahead of the assessor.
Assessing the field for the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase can be a bit of a leap of faith as many of the field have never run in a handicap before. As was pointed out yesterday the Philip Hobbs yard has been in good form this month and Copper Bleu looks nicely weighted on 11st 1lb.
He had top form in novice hurdles – a good fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle here last year – and has made steady progress in his three runs over fences.
Tags: