Oil experts quietly report we have hit PEAK OIL. US gov. report claims it will be 20 years of shock to economy

Question

once we hit peak oil production. As demand grows by 2 percent per year, and output is anticipated to drop by 1 to 2 percent per year- it appears we are in the earliest stages of a major lifestyle change for americans. If the geologists and oil researchers are even partly right,

what do you think the 20 year adjustment phase will be like, until we develop effective alternative energy resources?

What are the warning signs we are in the troubled transition phase many researchers expect?

How bad will the economy get?

What changes do you anticipate in:

travel

way of life

income and costs

violence

poor countries

inflation? Food shortage? Worldwide starvation in third world? Wars for oil? Is this the beginning of a 20 slide into a depression of epic proportions? Or are the 'experts' wrong of what they report quietly about peak oil? If peak oil is really happening now, then why aren't the masses more informed so that they can make lifestyle adjustments now

Answer 1

I am trying to be optimistic because there is a huge economic incentive to find new sources of energy to replace gasoline.  There certainly will be adjustments to be made and a lot of hardship, but we are a clever species.  We will survive.

Answer 2

We are nowhere near peak oil production.  There are more known oil reserves in the ground than we are using now.   What we are peaking on, is the easily accessible, or 'low hanging fruit'.  The remaining oil is harder to get to, but at prices above $60/barrel, drilling for it becomes economically viable.  The shortage is of our own making. We don't have to fight for oil, we just have to dig for it.  So long as our priority is having horny caribou in Alaska, the price of oil will continue to climb.  We need to increase domestic production.

Eventually, of course, we will run out of oil. At that time, the price will spike, and out of economic necessity, demand will fall off.  Most third world countries are already in a state of tyranny or anarchy, so there is not much downside risk there. Their situation will continue to be dismal, and exacberated by the fact that others will no longer be able to help them.  Developed countries will feel the pinch though.

Demand will not continue to increase in the face of rising prices.  The US economy did without oil before (WW2, and the 1973 oil embargo), and it will persevere again.  

People will travel less, communicate and conduct business online more, adopt a 4 day/10 hr. workweek, spend less on cars, and more on food.  .

On the upside, economic pressures brought on by the shortages will stimulate innovation and entirely new products.  The demand must be market driven however, as opposed to politcally driven.  Government intervention just creates false demand, and destabilizes the market (ie: ethanol legislation and aggressive emissions standards).

Just because they haven't been invented yet, is no reason to be concerned.  That's just the way it has always worked.  Have faith in the ingenuity of your fellow man.  Necessity is the mother of invention, and Capitalism is a mother.

Answer 3

It's only peak oil until we decide to exploit the remaining huge deposits of oil located all over the world. Peak oil is like global warming - a hoax for the chicken littles to worry about.

Answer 4

Your comment is conflicting:  you say "we have"  then you say "once we hit".  So what do you mean.

From what I've read, it is projected we will hit peak oil around 2015:  peak oil being defined as 1/2 of all available resources being consumed.

I'm open to correction.

Answer 5

The Peak Oil, like the issue of Global Warming, is a scam.  

It's just another excuse to raise gas prices.

Google "Gull Island, Alaska."  Allegedly, there is many years of oil just waiting to be drilled in that area.

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thre...

Answer 6

The government is trying to keep the coffers filled for big oil- there are places that are not even being drilled in that contain huge reserves of oil in the states. There was a story last week that told of oil bonanzas being found in Nebraska- at over 10,000 feet oil was being hit in such large amounts that it was creating a new millionaire everyday out of the landowners there-here is what people need to know- this oil was not found by a single major oil company- they were not even looking for oil there- the oil was located, drilled and hit by " wildcatters"- these are oil drillers that are independent of the major oil companies-this is how they operate- they go in and if they hit major oil reserves, the major oil companies buy out their operation- they then sit on it to keep the oil off the market, or develop it as they wish , and control the amount that hits the market- They buy out the wildcatters because they don't want the competition, and because this way they can control the oil supply. Not a single politician will do anything about this because money is power and control , and no one has more then the oil industry.

Answer 7

My husband was at the Peak Oil Conference last year in Ireland attended by all the biggest names in the industry. The clear message was that Peak oil has happened already. There will be huge changes to lifestyle and they are happening quicker than expected due to incresed demand when oil production is depleting. These are the facts, but people will continue to see themselves and thier country as invincible to the problem because they are used to getting what they like. The UK is already seeing a huge change in just 6 months due to oil prices and there are many many protests going on around Europe where oil prices are severely affecting businesses such as trucking and fishing.

Its a bit of an unknown exactly how people will react to peak oil and how quickly governments can get thier arses in gear and act/educate the population as to how to live more self sufficiently.

Its a huge debate and if you check out YouTube you will find all sorts of interesting videos about the subject. My husband is the expert on this subject and knows all the facts and figures where I dont but one thing I do know - the world is going to dramatically change, there will be a regression and then hopefully the world in 20 years time will be all the better for it. I moved from the UK 3 years ago and am horrified everytime I return at the selfish, self-indulgent, greedy, moaning credit card nation it has become. I loved my country and I hope to move back one day but right now, I'm happy being well out of it.

Answer 8

It's a lie.  People haven't even drilled in every place on earth that has oil yet.  Who knows what reserves lie under the places we haven't gotten to yet.  Some of these areas might have more oil than the Arabian Peninsula.  Besides that, scientists keep coming up with ways to mine and use oil more efficiently.

Articles like the one you found are just made up to make another excuse to raise the price of oil.  Investors will see that and start another flurry of stock trades that'll raise it even more.  I say take oil off the stock exchanges so speculators can't inflate it's value any more.  That and taxes on oil are the main reasons it's so high.  Taxes are a hidden cost of oil and gas since they tack it on before they post the price.  What other reason can there be for such differences in gas prices from one town to another?  Gas is higher where I live than it is where my parents live and they aren't that far apart.  The gas probably comes out of the same refinery too.