POLL: What would you do in these Blackjack situations?

Question

Situation 1: You're dealt two cards with a value of 16 (not a pair of 8s, or an Ace and 5) and the dealer is showing a face card. Basic strategy says to hit. What do you do? Why?

Situation 2: You're dealt a pair of 8s and the dealer is showing an Ace. Basic strategy says to split 8s. What do you do? Why?

Please number your answers to the corresponding situation. Thanks!

Answer 1

Basci strategy is calucalted by running every possible combinations of ways the hand could play out and figuring which play will make you win the most money on average, many peopel object to these two plays because all too often they end up losing.  The fact of the matter is THEY ARE LOSING HANDS,  you will always lose more often than not no matter what you do on these hands,  however you will lose slightly less oftan if you make the play called for by basic strategy

1.  The play 16vs10 is actually what is known as a borderline play, the EV from hittign is so close to the EV from standing that it will effect your total EV so little that it really doesnt even matter, in fact it only takes one card removed from the deck to make standing the correct play.    

***The expected return on your wager for this play by....

-hitting is -0.5359% of your bet

-Standing is -0.5408% of your bet

You lose a tiny amount more by standing, if you are a card counter, you almost always stand on this hand, but it is onlty the correct play because you know certain cards have been removed from play.

2.  Same logic applys here except this is no borderline play, the amount to be gained by splitting here is a rather large portion of your bet.

***The expected return on your wager for this play by...

-Standing is -0.6641% of your bet

-Hitting is -0.5144% of your bet

-splitting is -0.3665% of your bet

There is no question as to what i woudl do on this play i would split, to do otherwise cost the player way too much money for everytime he encounters this hand.

When surreender is available it may be the correct play. For these instances I used 8 decks dealer stands soft 17 for these numbers from wizardofodds.com, and in these cases surrender is the correct play for a hard 16vs10 but not for a pair of 8s because splitting is more valuable.  In some games with some combinations of rules surendering becomes the correct play for a pair of 8s as well.

Answer 2

ALL IN!!!

Answer 3

1. You hit because the House has a high card and the prob to win the round is much higher compared to your 16

2. Again you split because 2 eights + any card you are not busted and will probably give you advantage against the house Ace.

Regards

Pantokrator

http://www.bethedealer.com/?did=27162

Answer 4

You do whatever Basic Strategy tells you to. This strategy reduces the house edge as far as is possible using straight statistics and probabilities. You cannot argue with the maths behind it so you must trust it.

Remember though that statistical probabilities ignore time or more correctly, assign an infinite value to time, so even when following this strategy, there will be periods where you lose hands.

It is saying that these are the best moves if you were to play ad infinitum.

Situation One

If the dealer is showing a face card and your cards haven't reached the 17 minimum win mark, the probability of the dealer landing a 7,8,9,10, Ace or face card with his second card (all beating your 16 if you stand) are higher than him landing a 2,3,4,5,6.

So think to yourself you might as well Hit because 16 is going to lose in this situation far more often than it will win. I know it feels weird to Hit on 16 but there are potentially 20 cards in the deck (Ace,2,3,4,5) that will strengthen your hand. If you bust, so what, you were unlikely (statistically) to have won anyway.

Situation Two

Again, you do what BStrat tells you to! Firstly, two 8's is 16 which can't win unless the dealer Busts, so splitting them gives you the chance to have two 18's (or better), a potential winning hand.

18 is also higher than 17, a number the dealer is not allowed to Hit on so you would always win in that situation.

Your question Why? I have tried to answer with a bit of detail but the actual answer is because the maths involved demands that you do what Basic Strategy tells you to.

Basic Strategy does alter slightly depending on the Blackjack variant you are playing, whether you can double down on everything or split any paired cards, so always make sure you are using the correct strategy card for the variant you are playing.

Best of luck but remember this is not a "winning system", just a way of reducing the house's in-built advantage. The house will still have the edge over you as it does in all casino games, but it won't be as pronounced.