Part 2: AGW proponents, can you change their minds?

Question

These are what the AGW skeptics said would change their minds about AGW. Can you find the evidence and explain these?

An accurate AGW model that can explain historic changes in the climate.

Evidence that the current warming isn't normal (not another natural cycle).

Evidence that Anthropogenic CO2 emissions have altered the climate.

A detailed understanding of the mechanisms that drove historic climate change.

I haven't seen any opinions shift (at least not in the regulars), and it seems like the same arguments get tossed about day after day, but no progress is made. I'm just trying to act as a mediator.

Again, to be fair, I'll ask the opposite question.

Answer 1

1) Models can explain the changes of the 20th century:

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Ima...

Prior to that our data isn't accurate enough to model (the further back in time, the bigger the error bars, and the less data we have), so modeling further back is simply not possible.

2) Natural effects cannot explain the recent warming.

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1...

3) The anthropogenic radiative forcing (difference between the planet's incoming and outgoing energy) is 1.6 W/m^2.  The majority of that is due to CO2.

http://www.realclimate.org/images/ipcc20...

If there's more energy incoming than outgoing, the planet will warm.  Ergo CO2 is causing the planet to warm, which is causing the climate to change.

4) We have a good undestanding of historical climate change drivers - primarily the Milankovitch cycles and variations in solar output.

http://greenhome.huddler.com/wiki/global...