Picking the winner at the kentucky derby?

Question

How can I use the Odds (as one of the factors) that each horse is given to compute a statistical score of who would win, place and show in the derby ? for example, if there are 15 horses in the race and each one has odds from 1-9 to 100-1, how can u calc the win, place, show, not just by mere odds, cuase it never really works out in that the 1-9 and the 3-2 and 5-2 never usually come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, in any of the previous races, or at least I dont remember, there has got to be other criteria to help sway the stats, does anyone have a link on other stats. ???thanks

Answer 1

I had the same dilema. You could go to a bunch of sites for good advice.  But the problem is knowing what's good and what's not so good to follow. The Daily Racing Form will give you much insight on good picks for races. Plus they have information from a good choice of racing enthusiasts as well as picks for the favorite to win a particular race.

You could also go online to the Washington Post Newpaper and take a look a Andrew Beyers column. He has been a top horse racing handicapper for years and has a very good track record for picking winners.

I, however, like to simplify my picks as much as possible. What I do is bet on horses to "show" instead of "win". Over seas they call it Place Betting. In America it's called a Show bet. What that means is that you are placing a bet that the horse will end up in either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place. It allows me to actually make really good returns whenever I go to the track. I consistenly turn $15-$20 dollars into any where from $150-$300 easily. Thats with about maybe twenty minutes wortth of work looking at the racing form paper of the particular track I'm betting on. These aren't large sums I know, but I have a 89-90% success rate at the track.

If you are interested you can take a look a some more information on it here:

http:tinyurl.com/5535o6

Answer 2

The C-J Derby Data Track uses a variety of factors, and has a Derby Rating system.  It's at http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs...

That site has been good for helping me pick the winner, but not so good for place, show, tri, super, etc.  I'm going through last years contenders on that site now to see if there's any pattern for picking the exotics.

Answer 3

It's a difficult one to pick... it's going to depend on the track conditions, because the Oaks today was really sloppy.

Check out how these cappers did in last year's derby:

http://www.winningponies.com/results/pic...