Play carefully on Player of the Year
The market for the World Player of the Year, which is still eight months away, is a head-scratching conundrum. Not because of the difficulty in finding the value, but down to the current prices being offered. Someone has become too engrossed in pure footballing ability and forgotten to face the facts. This has sent alarm bells going off in my mind, usually meaning a hefty punt is in the offing.
History has proved that in a World Cup year the winning nation’s stand-out player picks up the title, not the player that has impressed throughout the domestic and, more significantly, the European season. In 1998 Zinedine Zidane picked up the award when France lifted the World Cup on home soil. Four years later we saw Ronaldo win the title after spearheading Brazil’s triumph in South Korea, the fourth time he claimed the award. How did Ronaldo perform in the season leading up to the World Cup? Well, as he was injured for six months of it, it is fair to say that he didn’t. His club Internazionale only managed second in Serie A and the semi-finals of the Uefa Cup.
Zidane led his Real Madrid side to the La Liga title and Champions League glory in the same season, including that volley in the final, but could only manage second place behind the Brazilian. Oh hang on, make that third place, with Bayern Munich’s Oliver Kahn coming runner-up; which was probably down to the Champions League quarter-final his Bayern side made, or his runners-up medal in the Bundesliga. Nothing to do with the fact that Germany finished runners-up in the World Cup?
Copy and paste above details for the 2006 result – just change the names. Despite Thierry Henry and once again Zidane’s (he could play a bit couldn’t he?) sparkling form in the Champions League, Italy’s World Cup winning captain Fabio Cannavaro became the first defender to win the award. Are you starting to get my point?
Lionel Messi is currently the market leader for the 2010 title at 3-1, with Wayne Rooney trading at 7-2. Both are on top of their game and are the two best players in world football currently, but there remains a serious doubt about their respective country’s international pedigree. Even if Messi or Rooney go on to win the Champions League in May that probably still won’t be enough to win the coveted award.
The title doesn’t lie at the feet of either of the two gifted players, but in their countries performances at the finals.
The price for both players to win the award is far too short; the only way to make it worthwhile would be to double up with Messi/Argentina World Cup win or Rooney/England, which turns both bets into a 25-1 shot.
With Spain leading the outright betting markets for the World Cup, the prices surrounding their star players to pick up the World Player of the year award are truly mesmerising. Fernando Torres (14-1), David Villa (18-1) and Xavi (25-1) all are incredible prices considering the criteria for deciding who wins the award.
Even teams such as Holland, Italy and Germany have their key players priced up unbelievably high – Wesley Sneijder (85-1), Franck Ribery (33-1) and Bastian Schweinsteiger (125-1).
Even though my money will be plunging on the Spanish trio for the award, deep down I’m hoping that New Zealand can shock the world and take home the trophy. The look on Sepp Blatter’s face when he hands over the World Player of the year award to Rory Fallon would be priceless.
Tags: