Please explain how we are having warming in the last decase?

Question

Could one of the AGW proponents explain how they are concluding that we are still in a warming period . Graph included.

http://images.dailytech.com/nimage/7390_large_hadcrut.jpg

The most I can get out of it is stable temp, but certainly not warming. I suppose if I cherry picked data, I could make it work. It will be very interesting to see if the current downward slide continues, or will it warm up. Look at the sunspot data for a prediction.

Answer 1

I suggest you read magazines, newspapers or watch tv...these issues are too important for one to mishandle....an expert should answer this question...

Answer 2

its from my farting

Answer 3

if you find the line of best fit you will find the earth is warming slowly the prolbem is you are using monthly data which is effected to much by random errors and natural variability in general.

Answer 4

Simple - just apply any statistical test you'd like.  For example, a 5-year running mean:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs...

Or even cherrypick 1998 as your starting point and apply a simple linear best fit:

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2007/0...

Notice that the red data is the same data as in your DailyTech article (HadCRU), and the trend is upward.  For a further explanation, read this entry at Open Mind:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2007/08/31/g...

The problem with the DailyTech graph is that rather than simply plot the monthly data as points, it plots it as a line.  So your eye is naturally drawn downward to the final point (Jan 2008) and it makes it look like a big deal.  But in reality, that's just one point, which makes very little difference considering that from 1998-2008 there have been 120 months, so January 1998 is less than 1% of the data.  This is much more apparent when looking at Tamino's (a mathematician) graph.  Or even this one, from Lisa Moore at Climate 411:

http://environmentaldefenseblogs.org/cli...

Also, the DailyTech graph does not include February 2008, which warmed significantly from January.  Or March, which will probably warm even further, since La Niña is subsiding.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;...

Answer 5

Looks like it is cooler now than in 1988.  Weather is so unpredictable.  Oh well, back to enjoying life.  Everybody have a nice day.

Answer 6

Hasn't been gaining in temps since 1998.  In fact they've found that the oceans have been cooling...

Global warming...  Sheesh...

Answer 7

Just one below average winter, which doesn't mean a thing.  It happened in 1982, 1991-1992, 1999-2000.  EVERY TIME global warming came back stronger than ever.  Proof.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

discussed in detail, with confirmation, at:

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/01/24/g...

As long as we keep making greenhouse gases in enormous amounts, global warming will dominate in the long run.  It's simple physics.

http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/earthguide/di...

With your screen name, you might want to note this:

"Former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich challenged fellow conservatives to stop resisting scientific evidence of global warming"

"National Review (the most prestigious conservative magazine) published a cover story calling on conservatives to shake off denial and get into the climate policy debate"

Answer 8

Actually Bob's graph shows the same thing.  If you look at the yearly data, it shows the same thing.  The average five years went up because of the strong El Nino of 1998, but look at the red line, it flattens out, then it stops suddenly.

Answer 9

ahah