Please help me\?

Question

Kyle says that a 30 percent chance exists that he will go to the library tomorrow if it is raining at noon and a 55 percent chance if it is not raining at noon. The weather person on TV, forecasts a forty percent chance of rain at noon. On the basis of the information provided, what is the probability that Kyle will go to the library?

Answer 1

My guess is that he is probably going to the library.

Answer 2

The probability that he will go to the library is less than 50% meaning that he is not likely to go to the library. Because, they're predicting only 40% chance of rain so it's more likely not to rain so he's more likely not to go to the library.

Answer 3

You take the average of the 3, with the weighted value of the meteorologist, as you can assume they have the better chance of predicting accurately.

So the chance would be 40%  of raining at noon