Please tell me if Rafa has the chance to be number 1 this year? How or what he should accomplish to be?

Question

How or what he should accomplish and roger should not for him to be number 1?

Answer 1

The ATP rankings work according to how well you did in the same tournament in the previous year. If you won the tournament last year, but cannot defend the title this year, then you will lose points, but if you reach further in the tournament in the current year than in the previous year, you will gain points.

Currently Federer is around 1000 points ahead of Nadal, so it would take a while if Rafa was to take over the number one spot. He can't make up much ground at the French Open as he won that last year, and Federer will likely get to at least the Semi-finals. Likewise for Wimbledon, where both Federer and Nadal reached the final. If Nadal is to take the number one spot, he would need to dramatically improve his hard-court game and progress further than he has in previous corresponding ATP rounds, where Roger won the previous year, and in the current year he performs dismally.

In conclusion, if Rafa does eventually succeed Federer as the best player in the world, it should take quite a while for Federer to be tipped off the top.

Answer 2

All poetential scenarios aside, Nadal's clearest shot right now is to win the US Open over someone other than Federer.

The dilemma Nadal faces is that he dominates the short season (clay) while Federer dominated on hard and grass. Nadal's at a disadvantage  in opportunities to pick up points on his best surface.

Unfortunately Nadal getting to #1 depends a lot on what Federer does. The only way for Nadal to get the #1 ranking during this year's clay and grass court seasons is if he maintains his points and Federer loses very early.

Federer lost in the 4th round in Rome last year so if he gets to the final of Rome and loses to Nadal he would actually widen his ranking lead on Nadal.

Nadal can pick up significant amount of points during the summer hardcourt season in Cincinnati and the US Open where he lost in the 2cnd and 4th round. But Fed can also gain points a few weeks later indoors in Paris where he lost in the 4th round to Nalbandian.

The bottom line is there is not a lot that Nadal can do himself to get the #1 ranking. Since he is ranked #2 he can't upset Federer in the early rounds. He has to hope Federer's game continues to decline and some of the other guys have the guts to step up and beat him early.

Answer 3

Very much so, Rafael is only 1000 points behind Federer, which isin't much, if Rafa pulls his socks up and starts training, he'll accomplish good stuff.

Its still a mystery, don;t forget that Federer has won over 10 Grand Slam while Rafa has won 4, HUGE difference for Federer since basically, Federer has a massive advantage, but Rafa can easily accomplish this if Rafa wins French Open, which he will as he is the Clay court Champion.

Well First off, he would need to Win French Open by straight sets and very good scores so it can prove on how good he is, if he does this Rafa will succed and It will be an awsome day.

Really depends, but who knows Australian Open was a huge suprise when  Tsonga actually Thrashed Nadal, but of cours eon clay Tsonga dosen't have much of a hope.

When Nadal does this he has about a 65% chance to be 1st ranking in the world. Also he is 1,000 points away from Federer, This will be a close battle to see if Federer can keep his Position or If Nadal can own a new ranking.

Keep your fingers crossed and have fun watching.

Phil.

Answer 4

It's possible, but it may take longer than he expects.

Rafa has a lot of points to defend during the clay season, and he needs Roger to get knocked out early. Take for example the recent Monte Carlo tournament. Rafa won, but he didn't make any head way in terms of the point difference between himself and Roger. That's because they both defended their points from last year - Rafa defended the title, Roger defended second place.

Now Rome is next. Rafa won it last year, while ROger got knocked out early. So what's most likely to happen is for Roger to actually extend his lead at the end of Rome.

Then there's Hamburg. If Rafa wins there he can dent Federer's lead but only a little. Again in the French Open, Rafa is hoping that Roger can get knocked out early. If Rafa beats Roger in the final again, that will have no effect on Roger's lead.

His best chance of getting the number one is to sweep the clay season and win wimbledon. Then he might get close.

I would say that Rafa's  best chance of getting to #1 is to make a mark in hte hard court season which begins after Wimbledon. Historically Nadal has always played poorly in the second half of the year.

Answer 5

i think novak has a better chance of taking #1 than nadal.

Answer 6

Yes, this year it'll be Rafa and next year it'll be DJOKOVIC!!!

NOLE - NEXT #1

Answer 7

He surely can reach the top ranking this year, as well as Novak. To do so though, he has alot of points to defend during this clay court season, and at first has to maintain those points and not lose ground and can actually earn some points, come the summer hard court season where he has proven he could be a threat reaching early hard court finals this year. This along with Federers slight struggles of late, could get him on top. However, as much as I love Rafa, even if Roger loses his top ranking, he still is the best out there today.

Answer 8

not in the wildest of dreams as federer and djokovic are in the battle of there own and accept for roland garros rafa has no chance elsewhere so dude take a chill pill...

Answer 9

Well someone has already stated the points difference in their rankings which is getting closer and closer. Nadal has earnt more points this season because he has played and won more than Roger. For Nadal to be number 1 next year he needs to defend all his clay court points by winning in Rome, French Open and possibly Hamburg (Even though Federer won that last year). He also needs to play well through the grass court season to match Federer with points in that part. Then the crunch will be the end of year hard court season. If Nadal can win the US Open and a few other masters events at the end of the year he will overtake Roger as number 1!

Answer 10

As of today - 28 April 08:

Roger: 6775 points

Rafa: 5655

Novak: 4935

For Rafa to make number one, a few scenarios pretty much must happen:

1. He must defend all his clay titles from 2007 - very likely

2. Hope Roger falls short at Hamburg and Roland Garros

3. Make it to the final or at least semis at Wimbledon to keep close - somehow I don't think he will make a 3rd successive final.

4. Actually win some tournaments AFTER the clay court season. He has been fortunate to have no player close enough to him in the past few years (until Novak) that his mediocre results after Wimbledon in 2006 and 2007 have not damaged his ranking.

5. Hope that Roger gets injured or struggles with the well-known after effects from Mono.

If Roger maintains his current form without to much further impact from his bout of mono, there will be little chance Rafa or Novak will catch him this year. In the ATP race - yes. In the 52 week rankings, no.

Answer 11

i agree with kraavitz... good reasons and chances so that nadal has the chance to be number 1 this year..

Answer 12

according to the 21 april rankings federe is on 6425 points, raf 5455, djo 4725 and davydenko is far behind so maybe.

Answer 13

i really hope so... me and everyone in our house are fans of Rafa and we always hope that he reaches the #1 position in the ATP ranking soon. we are all disappointed by some of his performances last year including the recently concluded australian open. i thought he has a great chance to win that one but it was a let down. but who knows... Roland Garros is next and everyone knows that no one can beat Rafa in clay. he's really a good player. i like how federer play too but i guess it's now time for Rafa to take the #1 position in ranking. he should win the remaining 3 major events to take the lead. let's keep our fingers crossed. Rafa ftw! =)

Answer 14

I really hope Rafa ends the year as Number 1 :) Lets face it he really really deserves it. To be honest im not sure how all the ranking points go, but Nadal isnt far off Federer and i really think he has a great chance to achieve this i think if he wins Roland Garros, Wimbledon and all the other clay master titles hehe I mean i no thats a lot but if anyone can do it, its Rafa Baby:P xxxxxxxx Vamos Rafa xxxxxxxxx

Answer 15

Rafa has a good chance of taking the no.1 spot from Federer this year, taking onto consideration his overall improving performance on hard courts, as well as on clay, and Federer's sluggish start this year.

However, it's going to be a tough call. Rafa's won his 4th consecutive Monte Carlo title, which means he defends 500 pts. If he manages to stay on top on his next 2 tournaments (Barcelona, Rome) and win at Hamburg (defended by Federer), by then he will have about additional 1000+ pts.

Right now he has 5455 pts in the overall rankings, Federer has 6425 pts. If he manages to win the above tournaments, and win the French Open, he would definitely be no.1 by then.

So, Rafa would become no.1 if he stays in top shape and plays his best games in the following tournaments (which by the way, are 3 tournaments in 3 STRAIGHT weeks), and if Federer wouldn't go past the QFs or semis.