Poker ; in percentage terms how much is this game luck?

Question

If everyone is of the same ability it comes down to luck, most of the time i play in mixed ability the people with the cards are the winners. Isnt poker a bit of a con.

Answer 1

In my experience and research, the game is roughly 70% luck.

Today I played in a 180 person, $11 tourney. In the first few hands, AA, AA, QQ and KK lost. QQ won, then AA finally won. (I beat KK with AQ). As you can imagine, all the opposing hands were thoroughly dominated preflop, usually without even hitting a higher pair. Imho, even though this is a ridiculously small sample, the big pairs barely won 30% of the hands.

Later, I played another game where I was getting horrible cards for about 20 passes of the button until I finally hit KK. I go all in with two callers, AJ and A6 suited. I trip my kings on the river, giving the A6 the winning flush.

Therefore, in my opinion, even if you are holding AA, there's a pretty high chance you can be beaten in a showdown, that's why betting aggressively is the key to winning poker.

Answer 2

"Luck" is only valid in the short term - over the long term the percentages will average out.  For example if 8 people are playing then, over the long haul, each player will receive a winning hand 1 out of 8 deals.  

Any hand in poker can be a winner, and any hand in poker can be a loser.  A full house is great, except when an opponent has four of a kind.  One small pair stinks but it's just fine when noone else has a pair.

That's why poker is primarily skill.  It's knowing the percentages AND being able to determine by the other players demeanors and actions whether or not you have the best hand.  And the hardest skill of all is to lay down a good hand when all the signals tell you that it's beaten.

Another note: All-in games magnify "luck" - If someone makes a horrible call against you in a $3/$6 game and gets his one out (about a 2% chance) to beat you - it stings - but if he does it in an all-in tournament, you're gone.  It's easy to say he was "lucky" - but in the long run he's going to lose in that situation 45 times to the once he hit his card.  You were just unfortunate that the once came against you.

My assessment -

Short term - 75% skill, 25% luck

Long term - 99.9% skill, 0.1% luck

Answer 3

nope, like doyle brunson says, when luck is out the door, skill comes through the window.  I've won several games without having the best hand preflop.  I've pushed people off bigger hands to win many pots.  you just need to play better.  basically you're being outplayed.  wether the other player is doing it because he's skilled or he's just a donkey, doing what he did at the right time.

Answer 4

Except in closed games with very few players the situation just never develops.

I've played the underground games throughout  Ontario, New York State and Detroit and B&M casinos all over the world. I have never come across a situation where there was a game where all the players were roughly the same level of skill.

Now assuming we did have a small outpost where everyone was the same level of skill even in a closed system it wouldn't stay that way. People are different and some are just more intelligent than others. Some just learn faster than others. Some will put more effort into learning the game. So even if everyone was the same skill level eventually there will be differences.

But yes if we accept your hypothetical and impossible scenario where everyone is equal than yes the game is all reduced to luck for the short run and in the long run the only winner is the rake.

Answer 5

Yes it is because in a normal run of the mill game the chances normally come out to 25 75

Answer 6

It varies.

The best play isn't always the right play, and the right play isn't always the best play.

So, I think a little more luck than skill.

I consider myself very unlucky. I started a book of bad beats and had the first page full in 3 days. I can leave my opponent crushed many a times, and come up on the losing end more often than not.

They say the same names are at the final tables alot of times for a reason. The luck happens to be on thier side when they are using great skill. Thats why they don't make it every time.

You can play your absolute best poker ever, and still get unlucky.

For me: 75% Luck  25% Skill. Its very hard to play with my bad luck.

Everyones different though.

I don't think Jamie Gold, Greg Raymer or Chris Moneymaker are any good. But they were  lucky enough to win the World Series Of Poker main event as amatuers.

Answer 7

short term luck > skill

example

chris moneymaker was not the best player in the world when he won the world series.  

but long term skill > luck

it is not a coincidence that daniel negreaneau, annie duke, phil helmuth, phil ivey, doyle brunson etc etc make a profit playing poker every year.  This is because although luck plays a role in each individual game, over the long hall skill wins out