Poker pocket pair!?

Question

what are the chances of you flopping a set with a pocket pair? the odds

Answer 1

This could probably be narrowed down to the GOOD pairs you could get. Which becomes dependent on what the flop brings. A lot of pairs become useless after the flop because someone paired up higher cards than you have.

Answer 2

I don't think the guy above me has it exactly right.  If you have  a table of 9 players there are 18 cards out, leaving 34 cards in the deck.  Two of those cards would match your pair.  

You have a 2 in 34 chance overall of getting one of the two cards you need to make your set, but since 3 cards come off on the flop that number is increased to 6 of 34, and with some rounding you come up with about a 1 in 6 chance of hitting the set on the flop.  I think with a bit of finagling that it works out to about a 17% chance.

Answer 3

If you hold a pocket pair, you're about an 8:1 dog to flop a set.  I learned this early on in my poker career, and know it by heart.  This means one time in 9, or about 11% of the time you'll flop a set.  It took awhile to find math to back me up, but I did at wizardofodds.com  Here is the math behind it.

Let's assume you have a pair of aces. The probability of flopping a three of a kind is the [nc(one ace)*nc(two ranks out of 12)*nc(one suit out of 4)2 + nc(any other three of a kind)]/nc(any three cards), where nc(x) = number of combinations of x. This equals [2*combin(12,2)*42+12*combin(4,3)]/combi... = (2112+48)/19600 = 11.020%.

Link provided below.  This particular discussion is about 2/3 to 3/4 down the page.

Answer 4

What is the probability of not flopping a set.

You start out with a pocket pair, so there are two cards of that type left, and 50 cards total.

To miss the first card, odds are:

48/50.

Second.

47/49

Third:

46/48

To miss all, multiply them together.  This is your probability (p) of not hitting  a set.

p=48*47*46/(50*49*48)

to get probability of hitting a set (or better,fh or quads), find 1-p.

1-48*47*46/(50*49*48)

Answer 5

check out this link it should help you with what you wanna know

Answer 6

the odds are always 8-1.  I could bore you with math, but no one really cares.  Just understand that when you have a pocket pair, you will on average only make the set once out of every nine times.