Poker question?

Question

3/6 NL HU. $1,200 stacks. You decided to make a standard raise to $18 and the BB re raises to $54. You both are consistently making continuation bets after raising/re-raising. You call with: Js Jh

BB makes a continuation bet of $75 on a flop of: Qd Jc 7s .

You raise to $200 and he flat calls. The bb checks a turn of: 7d

You bet $200 on the turn and he flat calls. The river is: 5h

He checks the river and you bet $300 and he ends up instantly pushing over the top of your bet. What is he most likely holding?

a)KK

b)QQ

c)77

d)55

Answer 1

He is not likely holding a monster like quad 7s or queens full, if he was, he would be very foolish to check the river and take the chance that you check back.  If he has a monster, he has to make some sort of bet on the river, at least a value bet, he can't just check it and risk not getting more money in the pot.

Answer 2

His actions tell me he has QQ.  If he likes to bluff, I might think he's lying though, and if he's a loose player he might have been playing something like suited 7-8 or maybe 77.  Whether or not I call depends on my read of him.

Answer 3

I would think his re-raise makes it almost certain that he has QQ.  Rule out KK and 55 for sure, because he wouldn't have moved in on the river with just KK.  I don't believe he would call a raise on the flop and a bet that big on the turn with an under pair.  He certainly could have 77, but to re-raise 6 times the big blind after a 3 times raise with 77 is less likely than to do so with queens.  Also, it isn't surprising he would make a fairly big bet on the flop with the nuts since you said you had both been consistently making continuation bets, so you wouldn't expect him to be that strong.

My guess would be that he's got QQ, based on the information you gave, and knowing nothing else about the player.  Also, from a purely statistical standpoint, its technically more likely that he'd have QQ than 77, since there are 3 queens unaccounted for but only the case hand makes the 77.

Answer 4

Well, I would certainly rule out Q/Q, cause, one, a continuation bet would not have been made when you have the nuts on the flop with folks behind you(at least I wouldn't) even though you are saying you both are doing it.  Since you both are playing aggresive after the flop, why not slow down with the flopped nuts? The play is more like a bluff on a missed draw or an over pair to the board.  I certainly wouldn't rule out a lower set....(well I might, I don't know how this guy plays pre-flop, that big pre-flop re-raise out of possition might shouldn't be made with 7/7 or 5/5)

You give no clue as to what type of player he is, tag, lag, lp. etc....(other than aggresive post flop play...ie continuation bets) It is just hard to say what he has, but I would put my money on an over pair (k/K)due to the strange way this hand played out (I still say it is played like a missed straight draw, but that aint an option).  A check raise can be a very strong bluff on the river, especially against an aggsive player. If he had Q's full, or quad 7s, there would have certainly been a value bet on the river instead of checking, because your play could have indicated betting on a straight draw also.

One other question, where do they have a tournament with stacks that big and blinds that small?  So I am assuming this is a cash game and I would point out, your preflop raise is no where near standard in a cash game at those stakes.

Answer 5

I am not a great poker player but I do play in several "tournament games" a week and from my limited experience here are my thoughts....

I cannot see him holding QQ since he did not re-raise your raise at the flop and then he checked BOTH the turn and the river.  QQ is a typically strong pre-flop bet like he bet but it seems as though once he had the set with QQ he would want to push your raise of $200 to prevent you from hitting maybe the straight if a 10, K A comes out.  Or even a fluke flush if a suit on the board hits the turn and the river.  When the turn was a 7 making QQ a full boat, after checking, if he had the boat I would think most experienced players would have re-raised your $200 just to make it a little more difficult for you to draw out such as if you had KK or AA, another K or A would have him beat.  A re-raise might have given him more information about your hand and possibly a better determination of what you might be holding and maybe put some pressure on you if you were looking for the draw.

And checking the river was risky since you might have been holding out on a draw and missed.  A check would have let you just get out cheap at that point and see his hand for nothing more invested into the hand.  Where as a small bet you might have called just because "you had to see" or left you wondering what he had as he took the pot and buried his cards into the deck.  HOWEVER, at the same time, since he had played weak all the way to the river, it could have been the smartest move he made this entire hand IF he has QQ because it would give him a chance to read you by your bet and he probably knows you will bet into him and he will trap you into an all in bet.  But I still doubt he has QQ.

It is highly unlikely he is holding 77.  The biggest indication that would tell me he is not holding 77 is that once he hit the set at the flop, most players would look to protect the set since it is the undercard and would bet a strong pot size bet.

Not to mention the possiblity that you are playing AA, AK, KK since you played so aggressive preflop and with AK a straight would be possible and at the flop, all it would take is a K or A on the board to give you a bigger set than his holding 77.   Then for him  to check the turn and the river with the nuts seems a little weak.  However,  this could be totally wrong since if he has figured you out, he might have slow played the nut 77 at the turn knowing he could count on you to bet into him.  But because of his play at the flop, I say he doesn't have 77.  Not to mention, most good players I know just do not play a small pair so aggressive preflop.  77 is not a bad hand, but with your bet already 3x the blind, to re-raise you $54 with 77 preflop doesn't sound like a move an experienced player would make.  

The last thought I would be considering is does this guy bluff?  And how hard does he push when he bluffs?  Maybe he has that 55 and was pushing hard pre-flop and then when he missed the flop, he was just hoping his 55 would hit.   He caught the river and with so much invested at this point his bluff became a "semi-bluff" as he has a full house but not the nuts.  If you have 7 and anything that matches on the board such as 7Q or even 75 you have him beat.  But since he doesn't know what you have and he might think part of your raises were reactions to his checking, he might be trying to see if you are willing to go "all-in" and hoping that IF you do call, you just have QJ or something like AQ giving you two pair or even A7 just leaving you with trips.

But ruling out an all out bluff, and wanting to give him the benefit of the doubt that he was not "bluffing" with his preflop bet or playing really loose, at this point, I would put him on AA, KK, AK.  Not many of the strong players I have seen will push a small pair that hard preflop and they like to see a lot of callers to increase the pot odds when playing a small pocket pair.  Not to mention, most experienced players would not have called the flop and certainly not the turn if they did not hit their set at the flop as with 55.   Not to mention, he bet at the flop $75 which indicates he might have had an overpair to the board and wanted to see your response to the his raise to get a better feel for your hand.

So based on the four choices you gave, I am going with KK.

Answer 6

At this point you are in for $829.  Are you really going to lay down a full house at this point?  You've only got $371 left, and there is now over $2,000 in the pot.  So you're investing $317 to win $2,000.

You can obviously beat aces and kings.  It seems unlikely that he gets that aggressive pre-flop with 77 or 55.  So the most likely possible hand that has you beat is QQ.  At this point, you are in for so much, if he has queens, good luck to him.

Answer 7

I doubt he would keep flatcalling you if he held QQ.  My bet is a QJ or Q7.  I'd push back all in.  He may also have KK or AA.  Even if he does have the miracle 77, you can't ask for a better hand to gamble with.  Go for it.

Answer 8

He has QQ because when the flop was Qd he called.  It isn't 7s because he checked on the 7.  Best answer please.