Present odds of Asteroid Impact 1950 DA?

Question

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/(29075)_1950_DA

1/300 chance of ELE impact on May 16 2880.

Does anyone know if this is the latest information? Is anything being worked on to deal with this?

Essentially the odds of life ending are now much, much greater then they were of beginning.

This just doesn't seem like something we should wait until the last minute to take care of.

Answer 1

The JPL NEO 1950 DA page is still there, but I don't think there's a ready link anymore (there used to be a "Where is 1950 DA?" link on the Impact Risk page.)

The link below has the info, including a PDF of the article published in "Science" magazine discussing the orbital uncertainties and predictions of Earth encounters.

The data hasn't really changed since the publication of the Science paper.  Note that the 1 in 300 chance is dependent on a specific orientation of the object's spin pole.  If the spin pole is reversed then the probability is much lower, basically zero.  The distribution is thus "U" shaped with peaks at zero and 1 in 300.

Answer 2

The Asteroid Impacts are perfect for worriers and doomsday theorists.  God, will there be a field day for 2012ist (come 2013) and alienists and world coming to an end people.

Don't forget about asteroid- 99942 Apophis, it is still threatening.

By the way, here is a website with known asteroids.

http://szyzyg.arm.ac.uk/~spm/

Answer 3

There are three things to consider.

1.  1950 DA has been imaged by RADAR.  This gives the measurements of it's position and velocity extraordinarily well.  So, one expects the predictions to be accurate.

2. 2880 is an extraordinarily long time from now.  It's very difficult to project even a well known orbit ahead that far.  For example, the pressure of light from the Sun will have a significant impact on it's orbit.  The color of the object can make a difference.

3. Due to 1950 DA's orbit, it hasn't been observed very often - or with a long base line in time of observations.

We're not waiting until the last minute.  The orbit is known well enough so that when we can get a good look again, we will. It hasn't fallen off the list.

The JPL web site used to have a page on 1950 DA, which talked about these issues.  I don't see it now.

Answer 4

Relax. We have 800 years to work on this, IF it even is a problem.

With that kind of timeline, very simple and cheap measures would be enough to move the asteroid well out of the way of any impact.