Question about LAGs and betting the river?

Question

I know the general consensus is that you do your own betting on the river. But what about in this situation:

Full table, LAG limping in with about 70% of his hands (so he has a huge range), raising (generally 3-4x the blinds) with any suited face-x, connectors or pairs. He bets out on all streets OOP or if everyone checks to him. However, if there is a bet or a check-raise and he didnt catch any piece of the board, he will fold immediately. If he has any kind of draw or middle/top pair, he will check-call down to the river.

So, here's the situation (and this generally happens to me in tournaments when I'm the short stack, but it happens at cash games on occasion as well):

LAG limps in from MP and it's folded around to me in the BB w/ Q9. We go heads up to the flop. Flop is:

Q2Q rainbow.

I check, he bets out, I call.

Turn:

Q

check-call. River is a blank. I'm first to act. Normally I should bet here to get value for my hand...

Answer 1

This seems like a complete no brainer.

You are getting a bet regardless whether or not your oppenent has a hand IF you check it to him.

If you bet into him a reasonable size, chances are hes going to fold. Even if he has a real hand hes just going to call.

However, say you check. He bets, you can now raise (2.5x his bet is good, because you want the 2 to call, and big fullhouses are probaly going to reraise) . If he has a 2 or better, chances are hes going to call.

Lets reconstruct this hand. Say its 1/2 game. Pot is 4 on the flop. You check, he pots it, you call.

Turn, pot is 12. You c/c his bet of 12.

On the river, pot is 36.

a. If you check he bets around 30, you can raise to 80. If he has any hand, hes calling this raise and you win 200 (80+80+36). If he has nothing you win 100 dollars (30+30+36) EVERY SINGLE TIME.

b. You bet into him, around 25-36. Most of his range is air so he will fold AROUND 80% OF THE TIME. You win 36 dollars. Of course, part of his range consists of a 2 or better. You win 100 dollars when he calls which is 20% of the time.

As you can see, option 1 is alot more profitable.

Answer 2

A lot depends on how you have been playing too.

Check if you are absolutely sure he will bet into you, any chance he will check too means you have to bet. At times I will put in a very small bet, more than a BB, less than a value bet to try to induce a bluff. If he happened to hit a boat, he is going to pay you off no matter what you do.

Answer 3

if you are a short stack against a guy that plays 70% of his hands your most glaring problem is you can not identify the idiot moron at the table.......YOU steve-o

Answer 4

if you like making money, then you should check the river in this spot...first off, it's free and easy money, you KNOW for a fact that he is betting, so you should take the guarantee on your money...second, what are the chances that he has something on a board like this? if he bets every time you check to him then there's no reason to believe he actually has something, and considering that the only real hands he could possibly have are to pair the deuce or the blank river card, he probably won't pay off a bet...i would check to him, then make the minimum raise and hope he pays me

and this applies for all situations and at all times, it's a very easy decision no matter what

Answer 5

NO WAY I'm checking this and give the guy the chance to check the pot down, regardless of how he plays.  I'm puttin in a value bet, one that SCREAMS for a raise on his part...you know this guy doesn't have "value-bet" in his vocabulary (especially if he's previously raised you off a pot on the later streets).  He'll be drooling at the chance to pick you off if you come with a small bet!  Sometimes trapping isn't as simple as check-raising on the river.  

BTW, there are a few different ways this can go down, and you can get many different answers that wouldn't necessarily be wrong here.  How did it work out?