Question on earth science?

Question

What are five of the most commonly used factors that meteorologists use to predict weather? For each of the five, describe them in detail and include how they are used in forecasting weather and describe any specific equipment required.

Answer 1

I sure had a laugh when I saw weatherwiz's answer. While what he said is basically true, I come from the time when there were none of those mathematical models existed, so my first thought was very different when I saw the question.

The five that came to my mind were.

wind

temperature

dew point

pressure

clouds

Just goes to show the differences in the older generation and the current one.

I won't answer the question further, you can easily look up the details for the answers in your earth science book.

Answer 2

One of the main thing forecasters use is forecast models.  There are a ton of forecast models out there ranging from the GFS, NAM, SREF, ECMFW, UKMET, RUC, CMC, NGM, WRF, and NAVY.  Meteorologists look at the models (not all of them but most of them) and try to decipher the similarities within the models.  This is called looking for model agreement.  Looking at forecast models is very difficult b/c you don't take them at face value.  There can be errors in the models and you have to know what to look for and what each error can cause within the model.  What you really look for is patterns.

Another thing meteorologists do is look at past weather patterns and see what situation occurred within that pattern and try to determine the chances of this occuring again and they use this also as a blend in their forecast.  

Meteorologists will also use real-time or current data to predict the weather.  This is called now-casting.  Now-casting is very popular in the spring/summer months with severe weather forecasting as prior to the day of the event it can be really tough to gauge how much instability will be present b/c it can be tell if the sun will come out or even how much sun you will see.  Now-casting can also be done in the winter with winter weather, especially with winter storms where it looks like sleet/freezing may mix in or changeover.  

These are really the 3 I can think of.  Most of the forecasts are made by studying weather models and overlooking lots of data and trying to determine which models are more correct, which models have the most consistency from run-to-run, and which models have the most agreement.

Don't worry water, I totally understand where you come from.  Most of the older generation forecasters are more old fashion than today's.  Not so much into the models.  

Thanks!  I do alot of work and study on my own so when I get back to college I will have a better understanding of things.