BMW PGA Championship betting preview
This week sees Wentworth play host to the BMW PGA Championship for the 27th time, though regular attendees are unlikely to feel they're going in with a great advantage.
Design consultant Ernie Els, also taking part here, has overseen "enhancements" that will give even seasoned campaigners the heebie-jeebies - the green on the 18th is now guarded by a particularly malevolent water hazard. But even with the diabolical changes that tormentor-in-chief Els has instigated, someone's got to win. So who should we be backing?
Probably not Lee Westwood. That might sound harsh on the man who moved up to world No. 3 in the world just this week. But Westwood has failed to impress at this course; the last time he scraped into the top 10 in this competition was in 2000. Of course, the changes to the layout may work in Westwood's favour, but the refinements have been made with a view to rendering the 18 holes more demanding, not less.
If you're thinking of backing an Englishman, we can't say that Ian Poulter seems an especially inspired choice either - he's played here eight times in the past, and in that time his highest finish has been a less than stellar 33rd place. Not that we want to be unpatriotic, but according to past form at least, Ian doesn't seem to wow at Wentworth.
That leaves defending champion Paul Casey as the pick of the locals, but Casey's season has been up and down thus far, finishing second to Poulter at the WGC Accenture Match Play but missing the cut altogether at the Masters. He's not been fully fit in recent weeks either, and we're not convinced he can repeat last year's feat to collect his first win in 2010.
The smartest money would seem to be on Els. After an indifferent 2009, Els has already won twice in 2010. He was already intimately acquainted with the Wentworth course, and, having played an active role in its redevelopment, he surely holds a unique advantage over the rest of the field.
Then again, similar theories abounded over Sergio Garcia last week, when he played the Texas Open on a course he'd worked on with Greg Norman - and the Spaniard finished tied for 45th place. Not that Els' game is suffering as badly as Garcia's, but we're just suggesting the South African's knowledge may not prove decisive.
Rory McIlroy is too unpredictable to back at relatively short odds - especially considering he was on the verge of missing the cut at Quail Hollow before making an eagle that got him through to the weekend (and his first PGA Tour win). Padraig Harrington seems to have run out of steam, at least temporarily. So why not look further afield?
South Africa's Charl Schwartzel is second in the race to Dubai rankings, and has two wins already this year, albeit on his home turf. The 25-year-old might prefer a warmer climate, but with sunshine forecast for this week's tournament he may feel at home - and as a protégé to Els, whom he finished second to earlier this season at the Blue Monster course in Doral, his fellow countryman and friend may even have clued him in to some of the new Wentworth's quirks.
Okay, so we're sticking our neck out a little here, but Schwartzel looks to be a player who continues to improve. Under the circumstances we think an each-way bet could be the way to go.
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