Serious question please read!?

Question

why do you think that most people on this forum say that big brown is un-beatable?

is it because a triple crown is a tough feat to achieve and they are desperate to have a triple crown winner? ( getting all caught up in the emotion of it)

i think some people see things one sided and the way they talk its like hes the only horse competing!

personally big brown doesnt tick all the boxs for me, in the belmont! he's been in work for a while and i think if pushed he wont be able to grind a victory! i think he will be a false favourite!

also...... our little aussie jock has been riding track-work in the u.s...... while on holidays he's been riding at belmont, aquaduct, hollywood park and santa anita, has anyone seen him work a horse and what you think?

Answer 1

First of all, I don't live in NY or CA, so I don't get to see workouts at any of those tracks, so I haven't seen your jockey.

About Big Brown... I haven't answered any questions about whether he can win the Triple Crown.  I'm rather undecided on the issue.  On the one hand, he's won everything pretty easily.  On the other hand, the Belmont is 12 furlongs, there's going to be very rested horses, there's good competition in Casino Drive, Tale of Ekati, Denis of Cork and the others, and Triple Crown dreams tend to fizzle in the long Belmont stretch.

Part of me wants to see a triple crown winner.  The last Triple Crown was won 6 years before I was born.  With some near misses in Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Smarty Jones, there's been some big let downs in my life.  And the sport desparately needs some glory right now.  With all the Peta nonsense going on, we need something to make us look good and bring fans back into horse racing.

On the other hand, I'm not a fan of Dutrow and I don't like the major creators of IEAH... I like that they're making horse ownership easier for the common person... it's a horse racing hedge fund... it's a good idea... but the guys who created IEAH are doing it as an investment... they're not like the Janneys who were in horse racing forever and have had horses forever... they're not like the Jacksons who have their own farm and love animals and actually care about their racehorses.  I really don't like that Big Brown is acquiring his magnificence through steroids... they may be legal, but I don't think they should be... everyone says that it's ok because all the horses are on them, but that's not true... Eight Belles wasn't on steroids (we know because she was specifically tested and the results were negative) and the steroids could have made all the difference in the Derby... she only lost by a few lengths and in a fair race, she could have won.

I agree that Big Brown has never been pushed and we don't know how he'll react if a horse challenges him in the stretch.  At the same time, he's won everything so easily that he might not be challenged in the stretch.

I do not think that the Triple Crown is a "foregone conclusion" (to quote that moron of a trainer).  I'm just really undecided.  I'll watch and see what happens.

Answer 2

I think that a lot of us are hungry for a Triple Crown and I really hope that BB pulls it off.I don't think that he is unbeatable and I am very nervous about it. We need a horse to really root for and BB is an amazing horse.I do think that Casino Drive will be some serious competition for Big Brown. My prayer is that, they all have a safe race and Big Brown wins with Casino Drive 2nd.

Answer 3

I think part of it's emotion.  Some of the people are young enough that they never saw a Triple Crown in their lifetime, so I can't blame them for hoping.  My daughter has never seen one so every time we get a horse that wins the first two legs, she's convinced that he's unbeatable.  

That said,  those "emotional" Big Brown bettors keep cashing in their tickets while I'm tearing up mine.  People (including me) knock him for not having beaten any serious competition, but Casino Drive's past competitors were even more pitiful.

I was going to bet Tomcito but his trainer said today that he's not running.  Tale of Ekati's trainer is unhappy with the way he's been training.  Anak Nakal's and Denis of Cork's only wins were under 9 furlongs.  Denis of Cork finished third in the Derby but he hugged the rail with a rail riding jockey and has a different Belmont jockey.  Behindatthebar has done poorly on dirt.    Macho Again, Icabad Crane and Ready's Echo have never won a graded stakes.

With that bunch in the race, you can hardly call Big Brown a false favorite.

Answer 4

Yeah, even if he's beatable, and I agree that he could be, you need another horse to beat him.

That's why he's unbeatable, there is no other horse.

Even the older males division is pretty empty.

Curlin, Commentator, and Heatseeker are almost the entire division.  What a joke.

Answer 5

Every horse is beatable... Big Brown is mending a quarter crack right now and he can run and win with it, but it still is one flare up that could worsen.  I've groomed a winning filly with the same injury, but she still needed much healing before she was at her best again. The hoof can develop an infection and BB still isn't entered in the race. Even if he looks fine, he may not be 100% on race day.  He had just run the toughest races in the US for 3 year olds and even if he won them, he still ran them and now he is going to run the longest race of his life after winning two really tough races... he has to be an amazing horse to win the Belmont after running and winning both of the other triple crown races.  

Spectacular Bid lost the the Belmont after stepping on a safely pin prior to running.  He seemed fine before the race.   Any apparently small thing can mess it up for even the best horse... he has to be feeling right on the day and be ready to face horses that may be more rested than he is. This is why the Belmont is so amazing and a true test.

I hope Big brown is 100% sound and will run the race without anything interfering with his path.  My worries are more because of an arrogant rider that can't stop looking over his shoulder.  He needs to sit smaller and chilly on the horse or he will s***w it up for the horse.

Answer 6

Big Brown has answered every question asked of him.

Sorry but he will win the Belmont doing cartwheels.

I've seldom seen a horse travel as well.

Please extend you question so I can get best answer!

Only kidding, good luck if you have a bet!

Answer 7

No horse is unbeatable. I like to think that it's circumstances as well. A good start, not getting boxed in, no interference from other horses and so on and so on. Anything can happen and often does. I'd like to see him win but I also like to watch him leave the other horses behind. He's never really been pushed so what can he really do? He always seems to finish races at a gallop not at a dead run. I'd like to see him challenged. Last but not least on his dam's side he has a direct line to Man O War who was one of the greatest racehorses of all time. Should be a good race one way or the other and I'll be cheering him on.

Answer 8

I know he is beatable.The Belmont will be a golden opportunity to get great odds on all other horses.There will be thousands of $2 souvenir tickets to win on Big Brown, let them bet on him, it makes my payout that much sweeter.

Answer 9

I'm not a fan of Big Brown, but he's the best in a lousy crop of 3-year-olds.  I personally think it sad he might be considered on the same level as Seattle Slew or Secretariat.