Tropical Depression Projected Path?

Question

Anyone else watching this Tropical Depression Crista Ball off the Carolinas?

I think this is going to be one very strong hurricane season, do you agree?

Answer 1

Yeah, we are watching Cristobal (pronounced krees-TOE-bahl), which was officially upgraded at 2 PM eastern time this afternoon, Saturday, July 19, 2008.  It is forecast to slowly intensify, but only to a modest tropical storm with winds at about 50 mph, before it becomes absorbed in the westerlies.

A tropical storm warning is out for the North Carolina and upper South Carolina coasts... including the Outer Banks, Hatteras Island, Emerald Isle, Wilmington, and Myrtle Beach.  The storm is forecast to move parallel to the coast... and 50-100 miles offshore.  So the beaches should see just rough surf, gusty winds (35-40 mph. gusts), and squalls... nothing catastrophic.  The closest approach to land will be as it moves off of Cape Hatters, and then again, possibly, Cape Cod.  How close exactly always depends.

Here is the latest advisory...

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008

200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO

STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING

PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100

MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 225

MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF

NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER

AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH

CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...78.3 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 PM EDT.

$$

Answer 2

I live in southeast, VA so i am watching it very closely.  If i had to make a guess right now, i would say it is just barely going to stay off the coast.  Yeah, looks like it will be a strong hurricane season.  There is one storm in the carribbean that might hit texas sometime next week. Still a long ways out though.  It is not even a tropical depression yet the last time i checked.

Answer 3

Since I live in Norway, hurricanes aren't much of my interest but since I have sailed so much and read about cross-Atlantic sailors, I know that hurricanes can be expected off the US coast when the sea temperature gets to 27 degrees Celsius. I also know that it comes usually at the end of August and European sailors usually wait until December in the Canary Islands to cross the big pond.

What makes you think that the hurricane season will be strong this year? The global warming? Well, from my point of view, the strength of a storm is not in the temperature but the difference of temperature. That's why we have in Europe more storms in the winter than the summer. In the winter the difference of temperature between the North Pole and the equator is greater than in the summer when the sun never sets.

I might be wrong but knowing that the global warming is affecting the poles more than the equator, it seems to me that the strength of the future storms should rather be ... less.

Answer 4

yeah i agree. bertha is still alive too.