Russian proverb: "The most difficult thing to predict is not the future, but the past." What does it mean?

Question

I found this quote on a flyleaf of the book "Snow Wolf", by Glenn Meade, 510 pages, St. Martin's Paperbacks, 1995, ISBN 0-312-96211-8. It is a fine book: powerful, moving, engrossing, gripping. If you liked "The Day of the Jackal" and "The Eagle Has Landed", you should like "Snow Wolf."

Is there a better section to post this question in?

Thanks, Jim

Answer 1

It's like when you get in a car accident.  That's in the past, but who the h**l would have predicted it?

Answer 2

The past is happening now when Russia moved into Georgia.  

Answer 3

It's year 2108, 2008 is past.  George Bush's head has just been added to Mount Rushmore with great celebration. viewing from 2008, who'd have thunk it?  But by 2108, the past has been skilfully twisted.  It coulda gone either way. Now who could have predicted that? The Ruskys got it right -- "The most difficult thing to predict is not the future, but the past."  

Answer 4

It's either goofy or very 'deep'.

If the latter, maybe it's author was referring to the fact that it is easy to predict the future simply because there is no frame of reference, whereas; 'predicting' the past (in  proverbial Russia) means relating, describing the past - something which requires accuracy and is checkupable...in a manner of speaking.

Or nyet.

Answer 5

It's an extremely Russian proverb, so it's confusing at a glance.

With Russia in particular, revisionist history is extremely common. Being, it's easy to guess how the future may go, but knowing how people will interpret/rewrite the past is hard to predict. The winners write the history books, after all.

Answer 6

Never heard that proverb although deeply familiar with Russian culture...Ultimately all predictions about future came from past..It is all repetition of what is already happened..It comes in different form or pictures but with same essence seems to be cyclical. As history repeat itself as details of a past do so just forming themselves in different positions. That is why new is well forgotten old.