Scottish Derby favourite Nambisco needs the rain to stay away
Never has a trainer been hoping that the weatherman brings good news more than Carly Philpott.
Philpott is on the verge of winning her first Scottish Derby, and must be looking towards the skies – hoping that the rain stays away. Nambisco, who is the favourite for Saturday night’s showpiece, has proved throughout the competition that when the heavens open his form drops considerably. The prime example was in the quarter final where after grabbing the lead at the first bend Nambisco looked to be in control turning for home but fell victim to the heavy ground following an evening of monsoon like conditions in Glasgow. He managed to plug on to take third spot and qualify for the semis but did not seem comfortable in the testing conditions.
The semi-finals saw spring-like conditions return to Shawfield and Nambisco found no problems in asserting his early pace, and continued his momentum in the home straight to score by 12 lengths, in a time of 28.90secs. The winning distance was made to look more impressive because of the trouble behind that saw extreme crowding at the first bend, but nonetheless none of his challengers would have got within six lengths of the winner even with a clear run.
Like with any middle distance race, a fast starter has a huge advantage over his rivals. Nambisco has averaged a first bend spilt of 3.77secs in his three races at Shawfield so far, which is a tenth of a second faster than any of the other finalists. His previous form suggests that his fast starting is no fluke; in his 14 starts he has only fluffed his lines from the traps twice, and has been away quickly an impressive seven times. It will take a brave man to bet that he doesn’t make the first bend in front.
All the form points towards a positive run from Nambisco and he is the rightful market leader around the 2.5 mark. The main challenge should come from Ardera Monarch, but the biggest threat to Philpott’s charge may lie in the hands of the gods.
Rain, rain, go away, come again another day –that tune will no doubt be bouncing around Philpott’s head.
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