Severe storms in Kansas?

Question

Hey! I live in Topeka, KS, and all the weather outlets are abuzz about supercell thunderstorms this evening. Even the chaser websites are getting their people up here. Is this really going to happen or just another tease? I LOVE big bad storms and I'd really enjoy some crazy weather tonight.

Answer 1

It will be a big one.

Answer 2

It looks like the biggest severe weather threat this evening will be large hail.  Damaging winds are a strong possibility as well as are a few isolated tornadoes.  Lack of quality moisture return at the surface and in the boundary layer along with a bit to much veering of the winds in the lower levels suggest what moisture in place will be mixed out.  This will limit the tornado threat but on the flip side will further enhance the hail threat.  There is a cap in place but this is starting to be washed out due to heating/mixing.  Lapse rates are incredible steep above this cap as are instability numbers.  Look for some dangerous supercells capable of producing hail as large as golf balls!

Answer 3

Wow I'm from Wamego Kansas, do you know where thats at? I have family that lives there so now I'm worried about them:( but I used to wanna be a storm chaser.

Answer 4

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has a Moderate Risk in your area and that suggest a pretty good severe weather outbreak is expected. Tornadoes are at low risk because lack of surface moisture, but hail is the main potential danger. Since there isn't that much moisture at the surface and with intense updrafts, I would be expecting some possible intense downbursts that could cause equivalent damage to a tornado.