Short, intermediate, long term factors affecting world's carrying capacity?

Question

for short term i have: disruption of food supply, new disease.

intermediate: climate change, energy shortages, desertification.

long: soil erosion, decline of water supplies, climate change.

first of all: can someone please explain in general the differences of short, intermediate, and long factors?

and why some of the examples that i have above would have an effect on the world carrying capacity?

Answer 1

You're listing negative impact factors but there are positive ones to consider as well, such as increased plant growth from increased levels of CO2 in the air and increasing agricultural productivity.

Disruptions of food supplies are nearly always the result of political factors such as a corrupt government or poor decision-making, but fuel costs are going to be an increasing cause of such disruptions. If there is no fuel available it won't matter how much food you have at Point A since you can't get it to Point B if it's very far away.

New diseases arise frequently but they rarely affect humans in great numbers. A new outbreak of flu would be bad but not devastating no matter what you see on tv. Something like the bubonic plague would be limited today due to better planning and design of cities and buildings.

Climate change is important in the mid and long term, if it gets too cool that would be far worse than if it gets warmer. If a new ice age started that would lead to the death of around 90% of the world's population in a matter of a decade or so. Warming on the other hand would lead to fewer deaths than we have now, since many more people die from cold than from heat related causes.

Most deserts are currently shrinking but if they grew then of course that means a change in rainfall in neighboring areas and less arable land for farming.

Soil erosion isn't a major factor in the developed world but in Brazil and developing countries it has a big impact if proper precautions aren't taken to prevent topsoil from being washed away. Flooding can make it a problem everywhere and flooding is much more likely if wetlands have been reduced and people build in a flood plain (such as New Orleans and similar areas).

I'm not sure what you mean about the differences between short to long range factors but I assume you mean a timeline. Short would be 1-5 years or so, intermediate 5-10 years, long term would be 10 or more years. During that period we can assume water supplies will decline even further and you can't live without clean water so that would limit the "world's carrying capacity" or population.

Hope that helps.