Should I fold, raise or call?

Question

This hand is simple, but was difficult at the time.

$240 tournament with 180 players.

$4K in chips to start.

Down to 100-110 players.

Blinds are 200/400

I'm in the BB with almost 10K in chips, table chip leader but not in the top 10 in the tourney. The table's been semi-aggressive, but I don't have a specific read on any individual players (only about 40 hands at this table since I was moved here.)

Seat 4 - limps in

Seat 6 - Calls

Dealer - Calls

SB - Calls

BB(me with Qs7s) - Checks

Pot is now $2000

Flop is K64, all spades.

SB checked, I decided to c/r

Seat 4 (with a stack of around 5K) bets 1,500

Seat 6 (with a stack of around 7K) raises to 3,000

D and SB both folded.

At this point it looks like Seat 4 has a hand, and Seat 6 has effectively commited himself to the hand.

What do I do?

Answer 1

OK, correct me if I'm wrong, but you have a KQ flush in spades right now.  That means you have the nuts right now, unless someone else has the Ace of spades and another spade in their hole.

Personally, with that strong of a hand, I wouldn't fold.  Obviously anything could happen on the turn and river, and one of those other two (especially if they flopped two pair or a set) could make a boat and beat you, so personally I would make a large raise to try and force them out of the hand.

Then again, there's a reason I don't play poker anymore, but that's mainly because of patience issues that I have.

Answer 2

Having made the flush, I would call just to see if you can suck out any more money from seat 4.  Knowing nothing about seat 6, it is hard to tell if they also have made the flush or have a flush draw, poss w/ the A.  Or perhaps they just paired their kings.

My only concern would be another spade on the turn or river.  

BTW, what did you do and how did the hand result?

Answer 3

Do you want to win the tournament?  If so, go all-in.  Only one hand beats you and you need to force a bare spade ace to pay the price to draw against your made hand.

Even if you lose the hand, you will not be out of the tournament.  You must gamble with this hand as sometimes players will raise with two pairs, making you a substantial favorite.

Answer 4

this is an absolute, no doubt about it, instashove...you have the second nuts here, if someone shows you the nut flush then that's great for them, but there are a billion other hands that they could have...seat 4 could have a ton of hands(most of which are now going to fold anyway), and why can't seat 6 have a set or smaller flush, or a king with a flush draw, or the naked ace of spades? there are too many combinations you can beat here

Answer 5

I fold because of the ace and chances at another spade to turn or river. Too much percentage of your chips at the wrong time in the tourney to gamble with that much. If I just had to bet I would go all-in to try to steal what chips they did have wagered... if they indeed only had the ace of spades, they may not want to draw with that many chips at another spade to come up, at that point in the tourney. But seeing as how it was still early in the tourney I fold because too many players will gamble in an effort to take a real stab at the overall winnings. It also can depend on what site you were playing. Absolute tends to have calling station to where poker Stars has the best players and Full Tilt is notorious for river cards. Ultimate Bet is a bunch of wild card type players as is BoDog. There is another site, players only, that tends to have a whole bunch of dead chippers. If that scenario happened on Players Only I would push all-in and watch the other two fold quickly.

Answer 6

Fold.

Answer 7

Raise. When in doubt, raise.

Answer 8

fold it

Answer 9

Wow, some hostile answers here.  This is not an easy or dumb question.  Your only real hope here is that someone has the Ace but not a second spade.  I think you should take the chance and go all-in.  Seat 4 is likely to fold and 6, who is pot committed, will call or he's crazy.  

This is one of those where you really have to know the style of the players at your table.  Is 6 likely to bet hard on a draw?  Only with the nuts?  

The more I think about this one the more I think you may want to fold it.  With 2 more cards to come there's a pretty good risk of flipping a 4th spade, in which case you're screwed, and more importantly you can get out really cheap at this point.  I don't see 4 with much more than Kx, perhaps K6 or K4, 6 has at least the ace and may already have his flush.  

d**n this is tough.  You gotta be a seriously solid player to dump this flush.  Dump it, get out unscathed, and if you dumped the winner you can walk it off and quietly weep for awhile.

UPDATE

Having seen your update details and your having pegged them as "probably solid," I definately think you should fold it.  A tough laydown but a very good play.

Answer 10

i would raise and go all-in. depending on how many chips each person has left may depend on if they are pot committed. i know most people will not want to play a hand against the table chip leader especially if it means they have the chance to get knocked out of the tourney. like most others have said that they  could have 2 pr and you dont want them to suck out on you. they could also have a drawing hand in which they have a spade in their hand and looking for another one. you have yours so you almost need to say "bully" the table at that time to take the pot while you can and have a good hand. it may not be the nut flush you have, but it is pretty close to it, and  since you dont know if someone has the ACE plus another spade you have to push them off any draw they have. i know if i have the Ace/spade, and i am on a draw to catch the flush, i am not going to put my tourney life at risk just to try and catch the flush. not worth it when it could mean the difference of cashing and getting money back or going home empty handed.

what did you do and what cards hot the turn and river? how did hand play out?

Answer 11

Interesting hand, you flopped 2d nuts and all this action after your check.  I am going to assume you have some rather decent players in this tournament because of the buyin.  I am going to further assume that it is a brick and mortar cardroom because of the 40 in vig.  (online tournys are 215).

At a semi-aggressive table I would not think you would get that type of action with someone sitting on the nuts, so I am going to rule that out at this stage.  

Are you willing to risk roughly 7k in your chips on the second nuts (because unless you fold now, that is what is going to happen) seat 6 has put just under half his chips in.  At that stage of the tournament I just don't see a whole lot of suited aces limping for 400, earlier yeah, but not now.  Alot of limping at that stage is generally mid/small pps.  and a few face connectors, but not that many.  I really don't see a big suited ace, it was an unraised pot preflop, and most everyone raises with those in a tournament.  They are both mid and late possition limpers so it is just easy to put them on a small pp more so than anything. (by the way, if 40 hands have been played, you should have some reads).  I would go ahead and put seat 6 all in, the only hand that will call you is the ace high flush, you might be missing further chips that you might have gotten had you smooth called, but one of those two more than likely has a set, and if the board pairs you are going to be forced to make a very hard decision.  I would make my decision now, and put the hard decision on them, period.   Even if you smooth called now, seat 4 might reraise and then what do you do if seat 6 moves to isolate with an all in, hard to lay down the second nuts then with 10k in the pot for 4 more thousand. You are relatively early in the tournament, more than half are still in, this is a good chance to chip up substantually actually more than double up, ending up with around 22k in chips.  If you get no callers, you still made 6.5k in chips, which is a good thing...lol

To sum it up, bet enough to put seat 6 all in, and hope the board doesn't pair if you get called.  Good luck.

I have thought a little bit more on this, I have some questions for you ....Are you playing to win or cash?  Next question...How fast are the blinds increasing?  If you are playing to win,  you have to play it, if you are playing to cash, then you might fold.  If you have a great Blind structure, and they aren't moving too fast (however that is seldom the case with buyins at that level) you need to think and it becomes a tougher call, but if they are increasing fast, maybe every 3 rounds or so, you need to hammer him.  How many chips are there in the tournament?  I have made it as chip leader in tournaments this size to the final table and have a crappy M, somewhere around 31/2 so that really makes final table play a lil of a c**p shoot, if it is that way and you want to win, you gotta take more risks in the tournament and that means you need to take this pot down. There is nothing worse than being at the final table and having a low M, and unfortunately the card rooms want their tournaments to be over as fast as possible so folks will get back to playing raked games, so I am assuming that would be the case in this tournament.  Oh yeah, I am a tight aggressive player and I do rather good on the Florida tournament circuit, and in Biloxi and also rather well on the higher buyin online tournaments (for some reason if the tournament doesn't cost over 24 online if it is nlhe, I can't cash, if it is one of the big sunday tournaments I cash on a fairly regular basis, go figure)

I am curious as to how the hand played out.  Hope you took it down.

Answer 12

That's actually pretty d**n tough.  I sat and thought about it awhile.

My conclusion?  Fold.

Why?

Well, you do have good reasons to push/call:

- You have them both covered.  A win here would result in one, maybe two eliminations.

- You have the 3rd nuts.  The only hands that could beat you in this spot would be Axs or Kxs, and those are pretty unlikely.

However, the downsides are:

- The bets to ME look like "please somebody call/push" type bets.  They are not overbets, meaning they don't seem to be scared of someone drawing to a flush, but they're not tiny bets that the two hands can get away from.  My guess is either you're looking at:

  - A made hand.  An ace or king high flush (if you're lucky, maybe just Jack high or medium suited connectors)

- a set of 6s or 4s

- An ace/king high flush draw.

So basically, you have a few hands completely dominated, a few hands have you completed dominated, and the rest of the hands have you at risk.  Are you willing to put 70% of your chips in the pot for a hand that you MIGHT still have beat by the river?  In a tournament, when I can get away free, I'd rather not.  As you said, in the very least seat 6 has himself committed, and if you call/raise, you're giving seat 4 very good pot odds to call.  Too risky for me; i'm a conservative player, so I say fold.

Although, as a final note, it would also depend on the buy-in of the tournament.  If this were a $1 NLHE tourney online, for instance (I know it's not, just saying, if it were), I would definitely push here.  But generally speaking, I would fold.

Edit:  Oops, missed the K on the board.  Believe it or not, considering that I would push.  Your only real fear now is the ace of spades, since the king is no longer available to anyone.  Given that you have two players who are more or less both pot committed and the second nuts, I would push here.  You're a 3-1 favorite against a set and about a 2-1 against an ace high flush draw.  If the king were not on board I wouldn't want to be up against that many potential flush draws (or made flush hands), but since it is there, you do have the second nuts and as chip leader at the table, unless I feel I have a perfect read on my players I doubt I would fold that.

Answer 13

Since its tournament style, and your not in the money yet, its a fold.

Seat 6 did pick up a hand which is why he raised enough to try and push seat 4 all in. Seat 4 cant just call 1,500 of 3,500 left, they would have to push, if they didnt fold. So seat 4 is all in or fold.

So in that case, you would have to be prepared to make a 5,000 call (half your stack) from seat 4 or more cause it leaves another reraise opportunity from seat 6.

And even though it seems like 1 hand beats you now, its acctualy a combination of 7 hands. Any Ace of spades with combo of J, 10, 9, 8, 5, 3, or the 2 of spades. So you could be drawing dead. Although limping withAJ or A 10 suited is unlikely, limping with the others is not.

Even if 1 of the 2 other players have A K, pairing the King with the Ace of Spades, they are in a good spot to win.

Or if one happened to catch a set,they have 7 outs on turn for a boat and 10 outs on river for a boat which also is a decent spot to win.

Worse case scenario is if your going against both of those situations. If your not drawing dead already.

Can I get a fair shake here since you think I'm a donk. : )

Answer 14

So you are saying that you flopped the second nut flush?

Only someone holding the ace and another spade has you beat right now.  Or if they hold only the ace of spades they can draw to another spade, giving them the better flush, which is probably going to happen about 28% of the time by the river (they have about seven outs).

I think I might just push all in here.  If no one has the ace of spades, then they might fold, and you collect $6,500.  If someone has the ace, they may gamble with you for the rest of their stack.  In which case you are getting nice odds.

Answer 15

Seat 4 is NOT going to lead out with the nut flush. Seat 6 is not going to raise with it, he's going to call and hope you do too to get more money into the pot. So you're probably up against someone who hit a king, and someone who either has the ace of spades and a rag, or (hopefully) trips.

There's no reason to be timid here, go ahead and push. You'll probably get a call, and be a considerable favorite. And even if you lose, you're not out of it.

Answer 16

tats a stupid question... you push.

you have a second nut flush on the flop with only one card able to beat you.  either they are all going to fold (likely) or you are going to good odds.. either way this is a no brainer.

Answer 17

You've seen 40 (FORTY) hands and you don't have a read on the players yet?  Seat 6 either has a made hand or a drawing hand.  I'd take my chances and push all-in.