Since i was asked to ask some poker questions...?

Question

...i decided that i would

and since i have the tendency to do nightly questions and such, i will try to remember to post one quiz hand per day starting tonight...i will give what i believe to be the correct answer when i choose best answer, you can agree or disagree, but i want to get some insight into how some of you guys play the game, and give you guys some insight into my game as well...so here goes the first hand:

you are at the final table of a major tournament, and there are 7 players left...you have 5.8 million of the 11 million chips in play, a ridiculously large stack at this point, and blinds are 20k-40k with a 5k ante...you have been opening frequently with trash hands and getting away with it because of your stack, and this time you pick up K-4 of clubs utg and pop it to 100k...the button, about whom you know nothing but can only assume he is a solid player, moves in for 300k total, laying you about 2.5 to 1 on your money...what's the play?

Answer 1

It is hard to answer a question that I would not see myself in.  Personally, I wouldn't raise preflop at a 7  handed final table with a K/4 clubs utg.  (4 handed yeah) but even then with that hand I would lay it down to a re-raise or push if I am making the assumption he is a solid player. The odds I am getting go out the window, my long term expectation doesn't matter, the question is do I want to double him up, or just give him 100k extra.  I am an agressive final table player by nature, however, with that being said, I like to make people react to my moves, not the other way around.  If I call, and I lose, he now has 695k in chips as opposed to 495k in chips if I fold.  While that slight ammount in difference really has no impact on me with over half the chips in play, it could affect how he plays later on, and how I would react to his play. Alot of people answered the question using mathamatical odds, and that is fine in many cases, but at this stage in a tournament I really don't think about what I am getting for my money, odds are designed for long term gain and how to play to get that long term gain.  Long term just ain't the issue to me at a final table, period.  The way to approach this is totally short term, how do I remain standing out of these final 7 people? Why risk doubling someone up on a hand you would not have limped with earlier in the tournament?  The table isn't short handed enough to warrent short handed play at this stage, and the whole play described is classic short handed play.  

Since I can only assume he is a solid player, he has at the worst a K/Q or an A/rag, all of which beats me.  Any pair beats me with me drawing to 3 outs for a bigger pair in most cases (excepting 3/3 and 2/2).  I am behind to any A/rag drawing to 6 outs, unless he pairs his A, or his kicker if it is bigger than my 4.  As for the flush, if I am thinking or betting on a draw at this stage, I am either really blessed or really stupid, I have too long of odds to even consider it in this decession.  With the assumption he is a solid player, I don't see him pushing with mid suited connectors at this stage even with a small M, and I have to figure he is wanting a call, because apparently I have been extremely aggressive (sounds that way in the question), so his assumption surely has to be that I am going to call.  He is reacting to my play, a solid player, on the button (meaning he has a few more hands to see before taking the blind) is not going to risk being put out with holdings weaker than my hand. So, if an assumed solid player wants a call from me, he has that K/4 clubs beat, no doubt in my mind.  I lay it down and surrender my 100k and wait for a better place to be putting people out.  Even though I am an aggressive player, I don't play recklessly, there are still 7 people at the table, plenty enough to get me if I keep making bad plays, and why would I want to show the others at the table I am raising with c**p while still 7 handed???  My plays will start getting calls all the time then, so at this stage, his play is making me play tighter for awhile, my M is great and I tell him "good bet" and silently thank him for making me shift gears for the time being.

Answer 2

I would fold...even though pot odds are there, you are an underdog and if he is a solid player, he has you beat straight up before the flop.  Why else would he go all in on the final table against the big stack.  I wouldn't give him a chance to double up on me, not at the final table.  I would also have to change the strategy a bit, because I wouldn't be able to steal the blinds as easily if I did fold.

Answer 3

Pretty tough question!

We're afraid of A-A, A-4, A-K, or K-anything, but everything else gives us favorable odds to see the flop. Guessing blind, we're only about 33% to win the pot on a showdown, so a raise (which would diminish our pot odds) isn't warranted, unless the button has a very tiny stack remaining. We're not likely to chase the guy out with a raise.

If we call, then it'd be hard to bet into the button after the flop, unless we make a moster (trips or two pair) or at least a good drawing hand (four-flush). So we'd probably be facing a continuation bet of $500K from the dealer, and now we're starting to look at some real money. It might cost us 20% of our stack to see the river card, and even if we've hit something, we might just have the second-best hand.

I'd fold. It's not worth chasing my $100K with potentially a million in follow-up bets, not when I'll have better position for the next several hands.

But then again, I'm the type of player who wouldn't have come into the pot with K-4 under the gun anyway, so my answer is probably a little conservative.

EDIT: Oh, you didn't say the button "moves ALL in", just "moves in". That wasn't clear to me. If he's all in, then I call.

Answer 4

You raised, D reraised, and (I assume) SB and BB folded.

The benefit of calling is the chance to eliminate a player.

One cost of calling is your chips (but the pot odds are there for that, given the probable range of hands you're facing.)

Another cost of calling is your table image.  Everyone gets to see that you raised UTG with a lousy K4 suited.  They aren't going to respect your hands after they see that.

Under the circumstances, I don't see that as a problem.  After all, you've been doing it for a while, and they aren't stupid (final table, right?)  They already know you're playing trash, and confirming it may actually help you.  Besides, they aren't respecting your cards anyway, they're respecting your stack.

So chuckle about getting busted, call the reraise, and feel a little guilty when you suck out the nut flush to beat him.

Answer 5

Super standard slam dunk pee in my pants call!

Getting 2.5:1, we only need to win 29% of the time to be +EV.  He has to have exactly AA-KK or else we're getting the right price.

Chips in a tournament are worth less as you have more of them, an odd but true idea.  At this point it's worth a small gamble to possibly knock out one more player and move one step closer to winning the tournament.  That's the cliff notes, here's the mathmatical reasoning that backs it up.

Our opponnent's M, the number of times he can survive a round of the blinds+antes before being blinded off, is about 3.  That's a horribly small number and he needs to do something now, so his range is wider.  However we already entered the pot and he knows he has to win, so he's probably on the higher end of that range.  

I would estimate that given our image, he'll shove any pocket pair, AK-AT maybe A9s, KQ, KJ, QJ.  Queen jack seems a little light, but keep in mind he's desperate and may just think this is his best shot to double up and try to rebuild a stack since you've been bullying the table.

Based on this range, our equity is about 36.5%, well ahead of the needed 29%.

Hand 0: 36.631%  { Kc4c }

Hand 1: 63.369%  { 22+, A9s+, ATo+, KJs+, KJo+, QJs, QJo }

So how tight does our opponnent need to be to make a good fold here?

To get to a point just under our needed equity, our opponnent must be playing nothing except 77-AA and AK.  This range gives us 28.3% equity which I would still take for the possibility of eliminating another player.

To have a clear fold decision, our opponnent's range needs to be {KK+} which means kings and aces and that's it.  Even just adding AK to the mix gives our K4c a 22% chance, which again in comparison to the benefits of winning the hand, isn't so bad.

It's not reasonable to belive someone with an M of 3 is this tight, and therefore we must call.

Answer 6

This is a super easy call to make for sure. Since you have big chips this is one call you can make to try and knock out another player. Even though your hand is pretty weak, you still don't figure to be a huge underdog to hands he is likely to hold. you have the 160k , plus his extra 300k out there making the pot 460k, and you only have to call off another 200k to win 460k, the value is huge here and even though you are sure to be behind here you have to call. And even if you lose the hand, who cares you still have over 5 million in chips.

Answer 7

Easy one to call been the "chip leader" and wanting to eliminate a player. Even with K 4 suited you have 100K already in the pot and pot odds are good for your money.

BUT its the final table and your here to win so why give away  your chips. So haven't said anything about position, another player could go Allin after your call!

I would wait for better cards say PP's or suited connectors or at least an A suited.

Answer 8

Since you put yourself in that position with the initial raise, you have to call. Even though it's a horrible play. UTG makes it a worse play.

Raising with K 4 especially when you are chip leader is just a bad play. You have enough chips that you can coast to final 2 or 3 easily.

You need to fold most hands and let the short guys duke it out. Even if one guys gets lucky and knocks all the others out, You are still in a great position.

There are 36 starting hands that beat you.  By calling you are hoping the guy went all in with K 3????

So you put yourself in position you have to call. Its now a $660,000 pot. And hes most likely in a great spot to double up. You never want to double someone up at the Final Table, NEVER.

(People dont bluff thier last 300,000 in chips when you know a big stack is gonna call  ^) for David TV.

Answer 9

well i'd play it and just see if hes got it.  ive known some pretty good bluffers like jamie gold or what ever his name is.  well i dont know him personally.  just on tv.  but i would shoot it to 500k to scare off anyone else and besides, he can only double up so that will only be to scare off anyone else.  then i would just watch the cards fly by and hope that i get a flush, two pair, or a three of a kind but hopefully at least a straight.  and so i would have 13 outs.  which gives me...  a pretty OK chance of getting one.