So, when fossil fuels finally dry up and we move to 100% Ethanol, do you believe that fuel prices will drop?

Question

I believe that the conversion to Ethanol is an inevitability and a fantastic source of energy. Of course the oil giants don't agree, because it'll hit them where it hurts most. But when it does happen, will fuel prices be reasonable for the era? I mean really, will we suddenly have a shortage of corn?

Answer 1

If they turn corn into a fuel-only crop, prices might drop, but I don't see a very big chance even if they do.

Answer 2

Think about it.....if the owner of an Prius was paying $5.00 a gallon during the last year gasoline is in production, how much would you charge him for a substitute fuel?

You'd either charge him the "market price" for the energy competitive amount of alky or risk seeing the price of your stock plummet.   You'd thus charge about $5.00 - $6.00 a gallon to be competitive.  And then the NEXT year when gasoline was no longer being made you'd have a monopoly.  Now be honest about what you'd then charge.

Answer 3

fuel prices might drop but i wonder if food prices will go up as more and more farmers choose to grow corn. agree that ethanol is a fantastic source of fuel and look forward to it or anything else that can put a strangle hold on the oil producing countries that are so bent on destroying us.

Answer 4

Step it UP We want a carbon Tax,Carbon tax on internet, it would increase gas $3.00 a gallon increase food and goods because of shipping cost .and a increase in electric 1/3 higher,so I believe if it is a problem lets fix it by Shut off all electric 6 days a week,only drive car one day a week, only turn water on city for 2 hours a day, We have to save earth mandatory prison in dark cell, SAVE the EARTH get SERIOUS,

Answer 5

It appears to be impossible to supply all of our transportation needs with ethanol or any other biomass based fuel alone. However a combination of electricity and biofuels are feasible.

I think the most likely future for transportation is a gradual decline in the use of fossil fuels, which might be entirely phased out as soon as about 2050. There will also be a gradual increase in the use of biofuels lead primarily by alcohols; ethanol is not the only viable alcohol fuel. Research is also being done on butanol.

I expect the use of bio-fuels to peak sometime after 2050 and then start to decline in popularity. The cost of liquid fuels for transportation are likely to rise from now until the time that their use begins to decline, which might happen sometime between 2050 and 2100.

Hybrid electric cars will become dominant by 2020 and that is the technology that will enable biofuels to support our transportation needs. Actually most of our transportation requirements will be supplied by electricity with the liquid fuels making up for those times where long-distance travel is required. During this time battery technology will continue to improve and at some point will become so good that most passenger cars will become fully electric and therefore will stop using liquid fuels entirely.

As transportation shifts from hybrid to full electric the demand for liquid fuels will first level off and then start to fall. That is when fuel prices will finally start to drop. That price drop may slow the transition from hybrid to full electric, but as battery prices also fall the high efficiency of electric cars will continue to drive the economics.

Another factor that will play out is the transition from fossil fuel based electrical generation to solar-based electrical generation. At first electrical prices will rise even faster than they have recently as natural gas production peaks and supplies tighten. That rising cost will drive the solar energy to expand extremely rapidly, it is already one of the fastest growing sectors now, and that will accelerate.

As technology breakthroughs become incorporated into shipping product the cost of solar electricity will fall rapidly and will eventually become very inexpensive. Distributed solar installations will become ubiquitous and will actually begin to depress demand for grid power. At this point electrical energy will become by far the cheapest form of energy and that combined with cheap and powerful batteries will consolidate the electric car as the transportation technology of choice.

Transportation costs in the post internal-combustion era will be very low compared to today. That scenario will take at least 50 years to achieve though and in the interim transportation costs will be very high.

Answer 6

no we'll switch to hydrogen!

it's cheap to make, after all,

e85 emits more greenhouse gases from making it than regular gasoline ever would from just running it, and you get less gas mileage, so there is no point in it

plus the only way hydrogen costs will go up is from inflation, not a shortage or anything

BTW gas stations will make hydrogen on site, and it wont have to be taken and refined from another place,

also hydrogen isn't going to explode like an atomic bomb in an accident, because while using hydrogen fuel you don't split any atoms. and when gasoline powered cars were introduced, people thought that was a crazy idea because of how combustible it is. (just look at the ford pinto)

Answer 7

Probably not.  Ethanol is a temporary crutch for oil production shortages.   When the fossil fuels are gone, if ethanol is still in use, prices will skyrocket.    

Currently the US can't produce enough ethanol to eliminate gasoline completely, and until someone finds a way to make it from something other that a grain used for food, it will never be cost effective.

Answer 8

No fuel prices will not drop - supply and demand - when everyone is using ethanol the demand will be high and there is limited land upon which to grow it.

Answer 9

Right now ethanol costs more than gasoline, so fuel prices will not drop.

And don't worry about the oil companies, they will probably learn to distill ethanol.

Answer 10

LOL...don't hold your breath waiting for lower prices.

Answer 11

We will go to butanol, not ethanol. It is a much better fuel than ethanol.  

And the price of fuel depends on how much can be made.

Answer 12

Your whole premise is flawed.  Alcohol is not a viable replacement for oil.  It is not "an inevitability and a fantastic source of energy", period.

Answer 13

Great Question!  Ethanol prices will go down (compared to oil)  as the oil runs out the price will raise, BUT...I hope you don't mind paying like $10-$30 for you meat , and $5 for a bag a popcorn.  b/c with more space going for corn production, farmers will not be overly enthusiastic to allow a field rest, or alternate crops, and with corn costing over $4/bushel.... the more it costs to feed livestock, produce popping corn, and oh yeah, feed us.  

I was watching a BBC newscast that explained the ethanol/food production  (I don't remember numbers, but it was not good).  We'll starve people, and cause the poverty gap to widen.  Not only will the poor not be able to afford healthy food, they won't be able to buy ethanol....

I live in Iowa, and it's like we won't even think about the long term consequences of our new "savior"  corn prices are up!  farmers are happy... just wait.

Answer 14

You people who know NOTHING about ethanol will be amazed at the damage it will do when that's all we use.  You won't be able to breath or open your eyes in cities like New York or LA because the fumes will burn so badly.

Ethanol cost more to produce than the energy it can release, so it's a wasteful fuel.

Ethanol will eat up many components, primarily seals and gaskets in most cars etc....

It's nothing but a welfare program for the farmers.

Do you want to reduce our dependency of foreign oil?  Let us drill our own here in the US.  But NO you enviro-whackos don't mind it coming from another country just not ours!

Answer 15

We know of more oil resources now than in the 80s, so I doubt that will happen anytime soon.  The only reason ethanol is less expensive right now is called GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES.  You don't see the cost, but your gasoline taxes are being paid to gasoline companies to keep the price of gasohol lower (about 5cents per gallon with E10 and 42.5 cents per gallon with E85).  But don't forget it takes 3% more E10 to do the same job as E0.

We already use 20% of the US produced corn for ethanol production.  Congress is calling for that to be multiplied by 7 (doubling it will occur later this year).   By my calculations that is 140% of the US production, so I guess our farms better start doubling production of corn.

Please buy an E85 vehicle and fill it up with only E85.  That way my gasoline I buy can be E0 (because there is only so much ethanol), and the price of it may go down since the demand for it will be lower.  PLEASE.

Finally, the oil companies (except Exxon) are investing in ethanol, and they are still the ones you will buy it from in the end.  So they'll make money either way, why do you think BP has so many ads saying "beyond petroleum."

Answer 16

Well I have bad news for u as we will never run out of fossil fuel. It is the fossil of plants not Dinosaurs. The first step in Mother nature's plan , the plants take in the CO2 and give us the O2 and they keep the C to make there food. That is the first step and then winter comes and the leaves fall off and wash down to the delta where it recycles into more fossil fuel.

Answer 17

No, they will increasse.  Ethanol is actually more expensive than petroleum.  The only reason you don't see this is the fact that there is a federal tax subsidy on fuel ethanol.  This will not last if ethanol becomes the dominant fuel source.

Answer 18

Prices will drop when all the greedy people drop.

Answer 19

we already have a shortage of corn and prices for tortilas and chicken feed have risen significantly just to meet currnet demand.

and why are we staying with infernal combustion engines when electric technology can already deliver a much better driving experience. the stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

http://www.teslamotors.com

Answer 20

Hey, I'm no rocket surgeon, but I'm waiting for jet fuel for my flying suit.

Answer 21

NO AT ALL!!!!! IT will cost over 400% more than today.