So who's going to win the kentucky derby this weekend? I need to place a bet and don't know which horse.....

Question

So who's going to win the kentucky derby this weekend? I need to place a bet and don't know which horse.....

Answer 1

I am 85% sure that Curlin will win the Ketnucky Derby. The reason why? Well...

He is undefeated in all his races he has ran, which equals 3. PLUS~ He did not race as a two year old, only a three year old (which equals this year) and then all the races he did run he's won them all by big leads, I mean in the Arkansas Derby, he won it by a record margin of 10 lengths!

So I think you should bet on Curlin. Because I can bet you $1,000 he will win the Derby.

NoT kIdDiNg!

--melissa--

RIP Barbaro

Answer 2

Right now, just have a short list. Will have to wait and see what kinda odds we're getting on the horses. I love Curlin being in the race. Hasn't beat anyone, he maybe the one, but he'll have to prove it. He'll be way overbet giving some nice overlays on others.

Answer 3

Box....Cowstown Cat, Street Sense, Nobiz like showbiz, Scat Daddy and thank me later

Answer 4

Well, I really don't know - but wouldn't it be great to finally have the 29 year drought end and have a triple crown winner?

Answer 5

This is sort of an odd year.  There's no horse that has really had a traditional training leading up to the Derby this year.

Nobiz Like Shobiz probably had the most traditional training of the top horses...  he won the Wood Memorial a couple weeks ago.  He made a strong showing there and won his first race of this year, the Holy Bull.  The only negative thing about this horse...  he showed a real lack of focus in the Fountain of Youth and came in third.  He unnecessarily swung wide around the first turn and didn't look like the strong horse that he was in the Holy Bull.  They added blinkers and cotton in his ears for the Wood where he beat Any Given Saturday and he was a much better horse.  But I have to wonder if it'll be enough for the Derby.

Street Sense has a pretty traditional training.  He finished second in the Bluegrass last weekend.  The thing about this horse is that he won the BC Juvenile last year and no Juvenile winner has ever won the Derby.  Street Sense was amazing in the Juvenile, then narrowly won the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start this year against Any Given Saturday where the 2 horses battled all the way down the stretch for a photo finish.  He had a very easy trip in both of the races: he had the rail all the way around and even passed on the inside.  In the Bluegrass, he was forced to go wide around the track...  and he hit the line with 3 other horses.  I wonder if he's forced to the outside whether he'll be good enough to win.

Hard Spun is coming off quite a layoff.  He was set to run the Bluegrass, but decided against it to practice at Churchill where he ran a blazing 5 furlongs.  He had one off race and his trainer believes he didn't like the synthetic track there.  He came back for a strong in in the Lanes End.

Curlin is unbeaten...  and the most narrow margin he's won by was 5 furlongs.  But he didn't race as a 2 year old which is generally not a good thing in the eyes of a handicapper.  Also, he has won with 3 strong finishes, but against who?  His maiden was by 12 lengths and the Arkansas Derby was by 10 lengths.  But his hardest field was against Grade 2 horses.  He's certainly a strong contender, but he hasn't really proven himself against other strong competition.

Circular Quay is coming off of an 8 week layoff.  He last won the Louisiana Derby.  He finished a disappointing 5th in his first race this year...  he lost all chance of winning when he had to avoid the falling rider who was in front of him.  If they can manage to keep this horse in the first half of the race, I think he has a good chance of winning.  The way I see it, his weakness is falling out of the race early...  if you watch the BC Juvenile (where he ran 2nd to Street Sense) you'll see he was 20 lengths off the lead for most of the race.  He made an amazing run back to the front, but by that time he couldn't catch Street Sense.  I think if they can keep him in the middle of the pack for the first half, he might be able to kick away and no one will be able to catch him.

Scat Daddy's my personal favorite.  As the son of Johannesburg, Scat Daddy gets very little credit.  If you look at all the major networks' handicappers, they've all placed Scat Daddy around 5th on their top 10 lists because Johannesburg wasn't much of a long distance horse, so they believe Scat Daddy isn't either.  I don't see it that way.  This horse had a strong 2 year old season and has opened his 3 year old season well too.  He was 3rd in the Holy Bull, but beat the same horses in the Fountain of Youth.  If you watch his performance there and in the Florida Derby, you can see this horse's talent...  he sits a couple lengths off the lead and waits for the turn to the stretch, then flies to the lead.  He's proven himself over distances (a mile and an eighth, same as all the other 3 year olds) and against strong competition (Nobiz like Shobiz, Stormello, Street Sense, Circular Quay) from day one.

There's about 20 other horses I could mention, but I think those are the big ones.  You could also consider Great Hunter (who got screwed in the Blue Grass (in my opinion)) and Tiago (Giacomo's brother) and maybe Dominican, Zanjero, Teuflesberg and Storm in May.