Special Duty can win 1000 Guineas
Trying to narrow down the factors is usually the best way of finding a winner and Kieren Fallon encapsulated the dilemma facing backers and the opposition for the stanjames.com 1000 Guineas when he said: “If Special Duty gets the trip she’s the one they all have to beat.”
It may sound a little simplistic but the filly ticks most of the boxes - and the pen could easily be hovering over that final one - and there might be fewer doubts, if this was the filly’s first run of the season.
However, it was her seasonal debut that put that element of doubt in the mind when Special Duty was beaten in the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte three weeks ago. Since then the 88.60secs of that race have been debated in minute detail.
The main point of deliberation is whether the seventh, and final, furlong of the Imprudence marked the point when Special Duty’s stamina gave way as she was beaten a length.
Special Duty showed no real signs that her talent could be hemmed in by such limitations when she won at Newmarket last season, over six furlongs, in the Cheveley Park Stakes. Her trainer, Criquette Head-Maarek, was asked after that race to compare Special Duty with her three previous Cheveley Park winners, and she replied: “She has the heart of Ravinella, the class of Ma Biche and the physique of Pas De Reponse." All of which sounds very promising except that while Ravinella and Ma Biche won the following year's 1000 Guineas, Pas De Reponse failed to stay the trip.
Head-Maarek herself has expressed a few doubts and the breeding pundits are split on the issue. Special Duty's dam ran only once but is a sister to Sightseek, who was a winner of seven Grade One races in America, of which six were run over an extended mile or nine furlongs and Head-Maarek, speaking before the Imprudence, said: "From the mother's side she's got a lot of stamina and we have worked her to relax a lot, so she's much quieter and now she can't wait behind and doesn't pull any more.”
The defeat could just as easily have been a mixture of three factors. Special Duty was running on ground that was softer than she had encountered before, she was not at full race fitness and – with that in mind – her rider, Stephane Pasquier, was not pushing her too far for a race that did not really matter so close to the one that really does.
Speaking this week Head-Maarek said: "She was not a hundred per cent fit because my target was always to take her to the Guineas. It's been a very cold winter and the fillies are quite backward this year. She has improved physically since that race."
If the official handicap figures are an accurate reflection of her worth then her rivals need to improve by at least 7lbs to beat her. The ground, which looks likely to be no easier than good to firm unless the predicted heavy rain arrives, appears to be against the chances of Seta and Music Show, impressive when winning the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket last month, may offer more serious opposition.
Those seeking some value from the outsiders could do worse than look at Misheer. She who won the Cherry Hinton Stakes at last year’s July meeting at Newmarket and was two-and-three-quarter lengths second to Special Duty in the Cheveley Park.
She was only fourth on her reappearance run, the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury three weeks ago, but she did very little to help herself. Her pedigree suggests an influence for speed but she simply would not settle and was a spent force in the final furlong.
If Neil Callan can persuade Misheer to travel a little more conservatively, and a field of this size should aid his cause, she may well run into a place.
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