St Nicholas Abbey a classic Derby conundrum
Was the decision to run St Nicholas Abbey in the 2000 Guineas a mistake?
Probably not. Hindsight is always the most gifted view of any problem and, viewed through that prism, the colt was always being asked to perform in the direct opposite to his breeding.
But there was every reason to believe that the bold decision to run a colt with a middle-distance pedigree in the Guineas, as part of a possible assault on the Triple Crown, was a shot worth taking. The risk of an unbeaten reputation was more than justified by the possible enhancement a victory would have brought and could be balanced against an honourable defeat when the odds were stacked against him.
“Fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derby” is an oft-used mantra and Generous did just that in 1991. The trouble was that St Nicholas Abbey came sixth. He only missed out on fourth by three-quarters of a length but he was sixth at halfway and made no real impression in the second half of the race whereas Generous, outpaced three furlongs out when the milers took over, had stayed on well in the final furlong; the classic Derby winners performance.
After this year’s race St Nicholas Abbey’s trainer, Aidan O’Brien, cited the slow early fractions for the downfall when he said: “Ideally for this horse, he would have liked an evenly-run mile because we were using this as a stepping stone from here to Epsom. We trained him all year with Classics in mind. It would have been easy for us to go for a Derby trial but he was working so well and his times were very good at home - they were as good as all of the milers that we have had.”
Johnny Murtagh, St Nicholas Abbey’s jockey, also blamed the lack of early pace but, in an interview with At The Races, added: “The magic wasn't there and the race probably didn't go as I would have liked. There wasn't much pace and he got a bit disorganised coming down the Dip. He stayed on OK but it took me from two-and-a-half furlongs out to the half-furlong marker to get him organised and on an even keel.
“I was quite happy with the way he stayed on up the hill and our horses come on a lot from one run to the next. I'd expect a big improvement next time out and I'd say the Derby would be very much still in the picture. I still believe he's a very good horse and we didn't see anything like the true St Nicholas Abbey the other day.
“Maybe he just had an off day and you can forgive them one bad run.”
An off day perhaps, but if a horse has trouble handling the gradients and contours of Newmarket it hardly bodes well for the rigours of Tattenham Corner. It certainly was not the same level of performance that convinced Europe’s official handicappers to crown the colt as last season’s champion two-year-old, with a rating of 124. The form of the Guineas suggests that St Nicholas Abbey ran something like four lengths below that form and many paddock judges were of the opinion that he looked quite lean, even spare, which also raises thoughts about whether he can make much physical improvement between now and the first Saturday in June.
The winner, Makfi, certainly has improved since he was culled, as an unraced two-year-old, by his previous owner, Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum, and sold at public auction for 26,000gns which is a regular move by the major bloodstock interests as a method of maintaining some balance to the equine portfolio. However, rarely will such a decision have come back to haunt one of the game's biggest players.
Giving his initial thoughts on the race Dominic Gardiner-Hill, the deputy head of handicapping for the BHA, said: “From a handicapping point of view it looks relatively easy to rate. Xtension, the fourth horse home was a 116 two-year-old and, if we have him running to that mark, and Canford Cliffs has run to his 118, it means d**k Turpin has run to 119. There’s half a length between d**k Turpin and Canford Cliffs, which is exactly the same margin as there was between in the Greenham. So maybe Canford Cliffs wasn’t an unlucky loser at Newbury that day.
“So, with d**k Turpin on 119, 3lbs for the length-and-a-quarter takes Makfi to a provisional figure of 122.”
The figures will certainly not add up to the sheikh. Admittedly his breeding operation has always worked somewhat more successfully – and has been less lavishly-supported – than that of his brother, Sheikh Mohammed, but the loss will still be keenly felt.
It is debatable whether the breeder’s prize of £7,500, that one of the sheikh's representatives stepped forward to collect at Newmarket on Saturday, merely rubbed salt into the wound.
Either way the decision to sell will not appear so good now.
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