Stab in the dark for Championship play-off
Imagine there are four of you in a room at Lottery HQ; four numbers are all set up in the chosen machine. If your number is drawn, £40m will be winging its way to your bank account.
The tension in the room could be cut with a knife, whatever that means. Not sure where this fascination between tension and knives began, the last place a knife should be introduced is in a tense situation. Gin and tonic? Yes please. Cheese and crackers? Lovely. Knives and tension? Hardly a match made in heaven.
According to many, the aforementioned situation can be likened to the Championship play-offs; form apparently goes out of the window and the race to take up the final promotion spot turns into a lottery. In that case Nottingham Forest, Leicester City, Cardiff and Blackpool all have an equal chance of tasting glory on May 22nd.
I’m not convinced.
The stats show, despite the myth that anyone can beat anyone in the end-of-season deciders, that when there has been a side that has been able to mix it with the top two throughout the season, a play-off success usually beckons.
In 2007, Derby, under the shrewd leadership of Billy Davies, finished eight points clear in third place and achieved a deserved promotion through the play-offs. Bolton see-sawed their way between the automatic places in 2001, just missing out on the last day of the season – they also proved too strong for their rivals in the play-offs. The same could be said for five points clear Ipswich in 2001 and the seven point gap in 1998 that Charlton held. In fact, in the last twelve years six of the play-off winners have finished third in the league. Hardly a lottery, more like a coin toss.
In a season where the standard of the Championship teams has been pretty mediocre, Nottingham Forest have been the only side to mount a serious surge towards Newcastle and West Bromwich Albion.
Their form has wavered since the challenge to catch the pair was made impossible, and the gap between them and Cardiff in fourth has been narrowed down to three points. But Davies’ side should be at least seven or eight points better off than the chasing pack. But for an inability to turn dominant away performances into wins, the Tricky Trees would be on the tails of the Baggies in second. Their home form has been impressive all season, and their firepower at the City Ground should be the difference in the semi-final clash against Blackpool.
There will be drama, twists and turns aplenty, but all the signs suggest that Forest are the ones to beat, and they're ready to serve up a feast of Premier League football for their fans next season.
Just leave the knives at home.
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