State Of Play to solve National dilemma
Those who keep coming up short when trying to find the winner of the John Smith’s Grand National may seek comfort in the fact that the first winner of the race was called Lottery.
However, there was no real fluke in last year’s big-priced winner Mon Mome, just that most form judges passed him over, although the race did raise some issues as to whether the National is evolving from the guidelines that backers have been using when trying to whittle down 40 runners to a handful of contenders from which to make a final selection.
Until last year only four horses had carried 11st or more to win the race in over 30 years, and then last season five of the first six home all carried at least 11st. A statistical blip or the emergence of a new trend?
This year’s race will provide more information, but that is precious little use to those seeking the winner now.
Clearly the overall level of the race is improving in terms of class but, weight and four-and-a-half miles is rarely a good mixture, so the fact that State Of Play has been dropped 5lbs this time looks interesting.
He did not run well on his only start this season, in the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury in November, but State Of Play’s form suggests that he tends to be a better horse in the spring, has a preference for a sound racing surface, left-handed tracks and goes well when coming back from a break. His run in last year’s race was somewhat compromised by a mistake at the 20th fence although he appeared to be travelling as well as anything else before the second-last, only to plug on at one pace through the last two furlongs to finish 18 lengths fourth to Mon Mome, for which State Of Play is now 12lbs better off.
Mon Mome is second-favourite for the race after finishing an eye-catching third to Imperial Commander in last month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, but he was running through beaten horses to finish 30 lengths behind the winner and is now 7lbs higher in the ratings as he attempts to become the first horse to win the National in successive years since Red Rum in 1974, and only the third to do so at Aintree in over a hundred years. That could be another Aintree truth that could be turned into a lie but it has stood the test of time so far.
Another is that no seven-year-old has won the race since Bogskar in 1940, which, allied to his poor run in the Gold Cup, has to be a worry about the chances of Tricky Trickster breaking the duck of Paul Nicholls in the National. The champion trainer has a better chance with Big Fella Thanks, who finished sixth in the race last year, four-and-three-quarter lengths behind State Of Play and now 2lbs worse off. However, his jumping is sometimes almost too exuberant for Aintree and he may pay the price for that.
Arbor Supreme was backed primarily it seems because of the rumour that he would be the chosen mount of Tony McCoy, as he seeks to break his 14-year losing streak on the race. However, McCoy rejected the choice and his overall form suggests why although McCoy’s final choice, Don’t Push It, still appears to be in the grip of the handicapper. Timmy Murphy is another jockey who has had to make a tough choice between Comply Or Die, the winner in 2008 and second last year, and an improving type in The Package.
He eventually elected to ride Comply Or Die but both are likely to be figuring in the finish along with Niche Market, winner of last year’s Irish National. However, the chances of seventh Irish-trained winner in 12 years do not look quite so good. The Dessie Hughes-trained pair of Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi seem to reserve their best form for soft ground while Snowy Morning, third two years ago, gave the impression in last year’s race that the National is not for him.
Those looking for some place value might consider Mon Mome’s stable companion, Flintoff, who is now 4lbs lower than when he ran a good race to finish third in the Scottish Grand National two years ago.
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