State of the Wild; what do you think of Hansen'd new paper?

Question

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/StateOfWild_20080428.pdf

Human civilization developed during the Holocene (the

past 12,000 years). It has been warm enough to keep ice sheets off North America and Europe, but cool enough for ice sheets to remain on Greenland and Antarctica. With rapid warming of 0.6°C in the past 30 years, global temperature is at its warmest level in the Holocene.

The warming that has already occurred, the positive feedbacks that have been set in motion, and the additional warming in the pipeline together have brought us to the precipice of a planetary tipping point. We are at the tipping point because the climate state includes large, ready positive feedbacks provided by the Arctic sea ice, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and much of Greenland’s ice. Little additional forcing is needed to trigger these feedbacks and magnify global warming. If we go over the edge, we will transition to an environment far outside the range that has been experienced

by humanity.

Answer 1

Eric C - I especially found the following quote from your link informative:

Natural, large-scale climate patterns like the PDO and El Niño-La Niña are superimposed on global warming caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and landscape changes like deforestation. ... “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”

To put this in simple terms, this means human induced global warming is real and it's effects can temporarily be masked or delayed, but NOT eliminated.  The radiant forcing of the atmospheric CO2 still exists and will continue to exist for a century or much more if we don't curtail emissions.  So your assertion about global warming being over is pure nonsense.

Answer 2

i find it pretty rational, and much as i've thought.  it does go farther in explaining and expanding on what's happening.

what i find astounding is the number of people with no credentials at all, who think that they know better.

i often see,  "Do the research",  or  "I did my research",  posted by folks who are obviously incapable of doing much more than parroting what they've heard from some talking head.

more and more people in this country seem to think that the world owes them, just because they're American.  they seem to have no concept of how Americans are viewed by the majority of the world.

if we think back, and see the roads, the water system, the railroads, the national parks, and so much more that we've been given by those who preceded us, and compare that to the legacy we're leaving to those who follow us, we as a nation should be ashamed.

Edit:  Eric, maybe you should post the next paragraph in your article:

"Natural, large-scale climate patterns like the PDO and El Niño-La Niña are superimposed on global warming caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and landscape changes like deforestation. According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”

ie, PDO, la nina, and el nino, tend to disguise the AGW that is occuring.  this is not the start of a period of cooling.

Answer 3

Global warming is over.  The cooling of the planet during the last year due to a large Na Nina showed how powerful nature can be.  Well there is evidence that shows that the PDO has now shifted into its cold phase.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroo...

"Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. “This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation ‘cool’ trend can intensify La Niña or diminish El Niño impacts around the Pacific basin,” said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. “The persistence of this large-scale pattern [in 2008] tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring in the Pacific Ocean.”

Answer 4

It's sobering to see how serious this situation is, and how ineffective our current government is at acting in the public interest.

"While making policy is the right of our elected representatives, scientists had connected the dots of climate research and were prevented from communicating that information. In this case, vested interests posed a threat to our home planet and the fabric of life upon it."

We need to throw every single politician out of office and make industry payoffs (the so-called "campaign contributions") a major issue in the elections this Fall.

eric c -

Exactly how would a 20 year weather cycle permanently erase the 1000+ year influence of CO2 once it has been added to the atmosphere?  Your argument isn't very convincing, is it?

Here's the actual status of global warming vs. short term weather trends:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2...

Answer 5

Carbon pollution is just one more example of what we are doing to the planet.

I will never understand how people think we can have

massive, worldwide and accelerating:

* chemical pollution

* biological pollution

* alien species invasion

* habitat destruction

* soil destruction

* water resource destruction

* direct human harvesting of species, which is using an estimated 40% of incident solar energy and 40% of land surface

and there won't be any consequences.

It's worse than denial.  

I would call it criminal; but then we would all be, but for the few remaining aboriginals, guilty.  

I'll find the word or one will be invented.

Answer 6

It's a very good article.  Some key quotes:

For those who make the "warmer is better" argument -

"Prior major warmings in Earth’s history, the most recent occurring 55 million years ago with the release of large amounts of Arctic methane hydrates, resulted in the extinction of half or more of the species then on the planet."

For those who believe global warming is a hoax -

"There is a huge gap between what is understood about global warming—by the scientific community—and what is known about global warming—by those who need to know: the public and policymakers."

I think it's very interesting that jim z is such an expert on what James Hansen knows.  LOL!

Answer 7

Cheery, eh?  Pretty much what I've believed.  Most experts would date humans origins earlier than 12,000 years although that's a reasonable date for human civilization.  That only makes his case stronger.  I like it that he included so many references to new species, changes in species population behavior, etc.  That's the strongest sign in some ways that we're in real trouble.  There are 2-3 new items in the news every day now.  We've got 10-50 years for the last of the mountaintop glaciers that supply the world's major rivers, then maybe another 50 for the Northern Ice, and 100 at most for the Antarctic.  So within 25 years there will be no arguing that we are no longer in the Holocene, although I agree strongly with him that the Holocene is actually already behind us, if you accept indicators less frank than Asia without water.

edit

Evans_Michael_ya was kind enough to provide this link

http://ccr.meteor.wisc.edu/climate-past/

Answer 8

I found it to be either misguided or full of arrogant assumptions of knowledge that he either pretends to possess or actually believes he possesses.  He does not IMO.  

I am not a particularly fast reader.  It was obvious to me he shouldn't try to delve in biology.  Some people can't see propaganda if it is staring at them in the face.  Look how he talked about Polar bears.  First he suggests that they declined by 20 per cent insinuating that GW was the cause and then talked about government protection as if that was some sort of proof that it was endangered.  THERE IS NO SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR HIS CLAIMS.  GET A CLUE!!!!

It is like arguing with children, really.

Answer 9

First, this "paper" is an opinion piece--it says so in the title (perspective...).

Second, the only reference that says that we are at the warmest level in the Holocene is one of Hansen's papers. I'd like to see how many "mainstream climatologists would agree with that assertion....

Personally, I can respect a lot of "mainstream climatologists", but James Hansen is a nut.