Survey 4 school: If I tossed a coin 40 times...?

Question

And the first 8 tosses are heads, what will happen in the next 32 tosses?

A) There will be 20 tails and 12 heads

Or B) The 8 heads don't matter and the in the next 32 tosses there will be 16 heads and 16 tails?

Note: I need at least 15 people's opinions so thanx 4 urs = )

Answer 1

There's no way to answer this question because neither answer is correct.  There is no guarantee that the next 32 tosses will be 16 heads & 16 tails just because the probability is 50/50.  Your answers are asking people to predict future coin tosses and that is impossible.  All someone could do is tell you that on the next toss of the coin, the chance of it landing heads is 50% and the chance of it landing tails is 50%.

Answer 2

B. Because the probability is based on the remaining amounts. Otherwise all events would be expected to be in a perfect 50/50 ratio.

Answer 3

B.  This won't be a very accurate survey though, because unlike the coin the future outcome will be affected by the answers already given.

Note: The way the question is worded it almost sounds like the two choices are predictions of what is guaranteed to happen.  However, that interpretation doesn't really make a lot of sense since it's impossible to predict something like that and I assume that's not what you meant.  If that was what you meant, neither answer could be right and it'd be a trick question.  If I can help it, I really don't like answering "none of the above" to a multiple choice question when it's not one of the choices.  It seems like a cop out, like when you ask someone what they like better Democrats or Republicans, or if they'd rather be shot or stabbed and they say "neither."  That's not an answer!

Anyway, I hope I answered your question.

Answer 4

it doesnt matter because i will allways be 50/50, you never no what is going to comes next, its just pot luck.

Answer 5

b.. coin doesnt know what was the last result