Spain has received a small boost Tuesday from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to receive the most improved economic prospects among the countries of the eurozone. The agency, which just released the update of its global forecasts, estimated growth of 0.6 % of GDP this year, which is four tenths more than estimated last October (0.2 %), after a estimated at 1.3% in 2013 recession. Only the upward revision to UK, six tenths is above, while Japan, four ties.
"They have raised the barriers to recovery and fiscal consolidation ballast is dissolving," summarizes the IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard at a conference convened to present the report. Of course, he also warned that southern Europe remains the " most worrying " region and has warned that the recovery remains weak.
The IMF has so far been the most pessimistic official with the Spanish economy organism. The institution was revised downward persistently all expectations for three years until the first relief October. On Tuesday, the country has earned another little push: the increase of 0.6 % calculated for this exercise also is above the 0.5% predicted in their forecasts Brussels November. The activity of the last months of 2013 has encouraged many changes in perspective and although the official estimate of the Spanish government remains at 0.7%, the Executive expects GDP to grow by 1%. It is also below the consensus analysts rate: the panel that makes Func, based on an average of 19 studio services, also revised its figures last week and stood progress this year at 0.9 %.
Are also significant changes in third international analysis departments, such as JP Morgan, who named his latest report on the fourth eurozone economy with Spain has become a significant, which predicted that 1% growth and stressed the progress of the last half of 2013.
But it's hard to take the rooftops: the growth of Spain, as reflected IMF figures, continues in the lowest level among the great powers on which the Fund has updated its expectations. Only Italy, which has worsened since October tenth, was left with a GDP growth forecast as modest (0.6%), while the lowest, France, following stands at 0.9%. And putting the focus in 2015, the picture gets worse: the Growth Fund estimates for Spain in 2015 is below 1 %, 0.8%, although it has improved relative to three tenths than expected in its report October.
Eurozone The unemployment rate, at around 25 %, also makes it impossible to talk about an exit from the crisis and expectations for the euro zone still cold. For the economy of the euro countries, the IMF has forecast a tenth, to calculate a stretch of 1% of GDP in 2014 and 1.4% in 2015. "The euro zone is twisting the corner from recession to recovery," the international body said in a statement, but " the recovery will be more moderate in countries that have experienced financial problems (Greece, Spain, Cyprus, Italy and Portugal) ". In these regions, and Spain is a clear example of why the Fund warns that " while exports will drive growth, public and private debt and financial fragmentation will decrease the demand."
Although the IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, sent an upbeat message a few days ago in Washington to ensure that now began seven years of plenty, after suffering seven skinny cows, throwing warnings Fund now makes clear that the fragility of global indicators are restless. The forecast for 2014 U.S. two tenths improvement relative to the estimate in October (estimated an increase of 2.8 %) but worse in four by 2015 (up 3%). And, although the fiscal adjustments have been softened by the recent budget agreement.
But Lagarde team remembers well how the first world power became very nervous the rest of the planet last October, when the political battle froze public budgets and activity of the Administration for weeks. Now, the agreement maintains the cuts reached by 2015, instead of retiring, a scenario in which the IMF was based in developing forecasts last fall, so that the prognosis is worse next year.
The risks remain Emerging powers in Latin America also arouse suspicion. The region has seen diminish its forecasts from 3.1% to 3% for 2014 and 3.3 % to 3 % by 2015. While forecasts remain intact for Mexico (the IMF forecasts growth of 3% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015), the Brazilian GDP has a worse eyes IMF horizon: 2.3% advance this year, two tenths less than the calculated in October and 2.8% in 2015, four percent less than last forecast.
Background risks persist, the IMF recognizes that call not " underestimate it need for strong growth." So appeals to not lift too fast off the throttle of the stimuli. "The advanced - including economies EE should UU- not answer this forecast improvement premature withdrawals from accommodative policies," says the paper today. Indeed, this seems an appropriate strategy given that inflation remains low and consolidation tax is ongoing.
There is also a special message for the European Central Bank (ECB), which " should consider additional measures" to rebalance and move balances towards banking union and strengthening the financial sector. "It will be essential for building confidence, revive credit and break the link between banking and public debt. The IMF also calls for " more structural reforms" to encourage investment. Blanchard has insitido at this point to reiterate the message of recovery at various speeds and slower in the Old Continent.
In addition, the IMF chief economist stressed that although its forecasts undergo a positive rate of price growth, " the risk is that inflation becomes deflation. Though there is nothing magical about the number zero, when more lower the inflation rate, the more dangerous it will be for the eurozone, " he added.
Tags: 0.6, 2014, forecast, growth, IMF, Spain, times