The Kentucky Derby?

Question

So what do you think about the Kentucky Derby this year? As in what horses you like and if you think that there might be a filly running in it... or if there will be a Triple Crown winner and what not...

I think that Hard Spun, Circular Quay, and Crulin all have a good chance and that Hard Spun has a chance at the TP. Yes I do think I'm nuts but o-well. lol

So I dunno, just wut do ya think bout the racin season this year and stuff.

--melissa--

RIP Barbaro

Answer 1

After seeing Street Sense's work for the Bluegrass and seeing him in person I have to move him right up to the top of the list. Carl Nafzger is a MASTER at horsemanship. I questioned his route to the Derby this year, but I'm not anymore!

I still love Nobiz. I've been following him since last year and it looks like he's maturing. After his FoY race I had my doubts, but I liked what I saw in the Wood. Barclay Tagg is also an old hand at getting horses ready, he still has 3 weeks and I think the 2 of them can put it together.

I want to see tomorrow's Arkansas Derby! I absolutely LOVE Curlin's pedigree, this horse (or should I say colt?) has "Classics" stamped  on both sides of his pedigree. Smart Strike was a brilliant runner in Canada! Mr. Prospector and Deputy Minister as grandsires? But I also want to see Deadly Dealer and Flying First Class and how they handle the distance .

I had Tiago in last week's Santa Anita Derby, I gave him a "shot" because of his connections...LOL! But I also had Giacomo in the '05 future pool, so I couldn't pass up the chance. Mike Smith is one of the most under-rated jockeys(IMO).

Saw Hard Spun's blistering work earlier this week. 5f in        59 secs and change, so he moved up on my list.

I like Scat Daddy and I guess I would have to include Circular Quay... but I have my doubts about CQ.

And about the Triple Crown I'm not sure I will see another one in my life time. It seems to become more and more unobtainable as the years go on. And I guess my hopes have been dashed too many times since Secretariat, Seattle Slew,and Affirmed.

Answer 2

I think that Hard Spun will win! I'm going to it!!

Answer 3

Horse Racing in Kentucky -

http://www.ky8.com/

Answer 4

Scat Daddy!  This horse gets no attention because his sire and grandsire were better at shorter distances...  but if you look at this horse, he's been perfectly happy stretching out to over a mile...  and he gets better at the longer distances as time has gone on.  He finished a distant 4th in the 1 1/16 mile BJ Juvenile.  He was pretty decent in the Holy Bull even if he couldn't pull out a win.  He closed hard to finish by a short first in the Fountain of Youth.  Then he opened up his lead in the Florida Derby, pulling ahead at the top of the stretch and outrunning Notional all the way to the finish...  and Notional wasn't even about to catch Scatty...  they could have run the extra 1/4 mile and Scatty still would have won.  It will certainly be difficult for him to run the extra quarter for the first time, but it'll be hard for them all.  Personally I think this horse can handle it even if his sires did better at the shorter distance.

Street Sense - he really is excellent...  but a lot of the time, horses who peaked in the 1 1/16 Juvenile don't have the stamina to maintain their greatness stretching out the extra 3/8 mile.  Street Sense showed he's still got it in the Tampa Bay Derby...  but against who?  He finished a nose against Any Given Saturday who has only won the Davis Stakes against a 7 horse field of nobodies.  Any Given Saturday didn't have enough to keep up with Nobiz in the Wood...  but Street Sense is a different horse off of a different rest.  We'll know more about this horse after he runs the Bluegrass tomorrow (although i wish he was running against Hard Spun instead of just Great Hunter), although a lot of people are really sure of this horse already.

Hard Spun - he was off his game once and other than that he's been a star.  He decided to forgo the Bluegrass to practice at Churchill where he could get used to the track...  and his lightening fast workout of 1:00 1/5 over 5 furlongs proves he liked the surface.  He'll be coming off quite a break, but i don't think it'll matter much.

Circular Quay - I loved how this horse closed in the BC Juvenile...  had he not been 20 lengths off the pace he could have given Street Sense quite a run for the finish.  His sire was wonderful in the Triple Crown races.  He's only had 1 good run this year, but it was terrific...  he was 4 wide around the last turn (because he had to get around the 3 horses closer to the rail) and he still pulled away from everyone in the last 50 ft before the finish...  so i think we know he can handle the distance.  The only problem I can see for this horse is if he falls to the back of the Derby field either the pace will leave him behind like in the Juvenile or he'll get caught up in traffic  and it'll stop his run to the finish.

Nobiz...  he was certainly a lot better in the Wood than he was in the Fountain of Youth...  but he still kinda does what he wants...  he drug his jockey out to the lead to the first turn until he was pulled back a length... if he tries to pull to the lead, he could wear himself out before the final turn and finish poorly.  He seemed great when he pulled away from Any Given Saturday, but then he almost got caught by Sightseeing...  2 things about his run against Any Given Saturday: AGS came off of a 3 week rest after a grueling run with Street Sense and it's hard to believe that didn't affect him.  also, AGS had a much tougher run than Nobiz.  Nobiz ran the entire race on the rail while AGS was 3 or 4 wide in the first 2 turns.  Certainly if Nobiz gets an easy run in the Derby he should win easily, but running against 20 of the greatest 3 year olds is going to be a lot tougher than his previous races.  If he shows any greeness or gets a bad trip, he might lose his shot.

Great Hunter - I honestly don't know a lot about this horse.  He did well as a 2 year old and he had a nice run in the Lewis Stakes...  his final turn was fantastic as he pulled to the lead.  We'll see how good he is after the Bluegrass tomorrow.

Tiago...  just like his brother...  I honestly consider Tiago to be Giacomo continued...  I know Tiago hasn't shown a lot, but the Santa Anita Derby was fantastic.  He came around and weaved through the leaders to pass by all the better known horses: Liquidity, King of the Roxy, Bwana Bull, Sam P...  Tiago made them look like they were running backward...  that's exactly what you want to see from a horse in his last race a month before the Derby.

I'm sure I forgot someone, as I always do, but those are the big ones that come to mind.  Scat Daddy's my favorite and I'll pick him to win...  but anything can happen.

Answer 5

I don't think there will be a filly in the Derby this year. Dreaming of Anna was considered as an entry early on but will not be in it. I don't think there will be a Triple Crown winner this year or for many years to come.

ESPN will be televising the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby tomorrow starting at 5PM Eastern Time. I like Notional in the Derby, but really won't have my mind made up until the post positions are drawn.