The Singularity - fact or fiction?

Question

The writer Vernor Vinge coined the term "the Singularity" to describe the point in the near future when machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, based on the exponential increase of processing power of computers since they were first invented (Moore's Law). Vinge himself believes this will happen by 2030 others such as Ray Kurzweil place the date a little later.

Is this theory just fanciful or do you believe that there might be something in it? If so what do you predict this future will look like? Will technology enable to live forever (as proposed by Kurzweil) or will the AI have goals inconsistent our survival / prosperity?

For more information about The Singularity look here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Answer 1

I think that eventually we will be able to build computers that have a greater memory storage and faster processing than human brains.

However, I don't think that this poses any threat to humanity because machines don't have goals. They only do what they are programmed to do, unless somebody is stupid enough to program them to preserve themselves and 'reproduce'.

Answer 2

it is a poor hypothesis. Parallel (brain) and serial (computer) computing take on whole different methodologies. We have yet to understand how intelligence truly works and as such we cannot yet replicate it even with the most powerful computers. We can approximate it, and in 2030 a computer may pass the turing test, but in reality, it wouldnt be able to dynamically handle a changing environment to achieve a goal, which is where humans beat all other creatures.

Answer 3

Intelligent computers or humans require definition, goal and agenda to be adequately appropriated and constructed. A Catalyst to orchestrate, incite and control atmosphere, environment and all human spiritual mood and inclination. God.

One creates a goal. Then paves a journey towards its creation. At theoretical stage its detriments, impediments, requirements and constituents are hypothesised. Then man is able to create such an Entity of magnimonious stature mindful of the implications of adversarial pitfalls.

Once ‘God’ is created who will then control *God* ...  ? Back to square one ...

Answer 4

Computers are already more intelligent as far as storing information than man.  Whoever provides the computer with the wherewithall to walk that talk will always have to rely on the fact that as the maker of the machine intelligence it will always require an external fixer upper so to speak.  Making that happen without man's intervention may truly make the machine greater than its maker.  Perhaps in another 200 years that could be a reality.  In response to another individuals thoughts that computers could not adapt to a changing environment the way humans do, we already have cars that turn on their own headlights at dusk, sense rain on the windshield and turn wiper blades on and could almost park itself using cameras embedded in the sides of the vehicle so to say adaptation is not able it is already computing it.

Answer 5

Pure fiction and wishful thinking.

No one has any idea of how even the simplest brains work, e.g. insects. There is no agreed definition of intelligence. The things computers are good at are completely unnecessary for survival in the real world.

The computers we have today are no different in principle to the ones we had 50 years ago. They're still number crunchers, just faster and with more memory. There is no way they're suddenly going to become conscious (whatever that means)!